859 Coffeen St · Watertown, NY 13601

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 300 Days on market

Built 1900 2.75 ac lot $71/sqft · 40% below area Est $315k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for a property with room to grow and the freedom to make it your own? This 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home sits on a generous 2.75-acre lot. Features a full basement that is ideal for storage, workshop, or future finishing. This home is located just minutes from local shops, eateries and outdoor recreation. This home needs a little bit of love, but the potential is undeniable. This property is priced to sell and ready for its next chapter. Property being "SOLD AS IS"

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Generous lot
• Full basement

Tags

• FULL BASEMENT
• GENEROUS LOT
• LOCAL SHOPS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,040
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -39.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
621 N Hycliff Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,704 (+0%)	9mo	$307,500	$114	65
1136 Superior St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,464 (-8%)	14mo	$289,500	$117	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-35,898
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,011
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,487 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$238 /mo · $2,850/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,746

Max offer price $160,392

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-73	-5% $-139	+0% $-205	+5% $-270	+10% $-336
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-263	+0% $-205	+5% $-146	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-109	-0.5pp $-156	base $-205	+0.5pp $-254	+1.0pp $-304

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
173 Ely St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1940	$1,150	$0.59	44d	1	0.25mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,500	$1.04	44d	9	0.34mi
156 N Meadow St Watertown, NY	4.0	1.0	2535	$1,500	$0.59	44d	1	0.55mi
377 W Main St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1991	$1,350	$0.68	44d	1	0.82mi
702 Leray St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	2700	$1,300	$0.48	44d	1	0.94mi
836 Leray St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1782	$1,200	$0.67	44d	1	1.07mi
128 Park Ave Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	2300	$2,400	$1.04	44d	1	1.45mi
417 Franklin St Watertown, NY	3.0	2.5	3000	$1,750	$0.58	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $190,000 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $190,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $190,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $190,000 Active 278 DOM
18. 2025-08-25
    listed $190,000 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Are you looking for a property with room to grow and the freedom to make it your own? This 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath home sits on a generous 2.75-acre lot. Features a full basement that is ideal for storage, workshop, or future finishing. This home is located just minutes from local shops, eateries and outdoor recreation. This home needs a little bit of love, but the potential is undeniable. This property is priced to sell and ready for its next chapter. Property being "SOLD AS IS"

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,850
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$5,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listed $190,000 CNYIS