366 Law 532 · Minturn, AR 72433

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Single family construction
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Level lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $771 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#401 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Hoxie School District (town): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #158 of 238 in AR (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hoxie Elementary School (math 44% / reading 28%, grade F, #248 of 454 statewide, top 55%, 502 students, 99% FRL); Hoxie High School (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #187 of 292 statewide, top 70%, 366 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 62% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $341 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $203 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 52.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 165.24%
• DSCR: 8.35
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,848
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
300 Lawrence CR 511	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,218 (-2%)	7mo	$93,000	$76	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $49,518
• Equity at exit: $6,841

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.68×
• Total profit: $110,202
• Equity at exit: $9,101

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72433

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $771

Break-even live

Break-even rent $175

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $20,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $20,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $20,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $20,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    listed $20,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $9,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,280
• After-tax cash flow: $6,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoxie School District
• NCES district ID: 0507990
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,220
• Composite: 24.51/100
• National rank: #7648
• State rank: #158 of 238 in AR

Livability — Minturn

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #23108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 61
• Population (ZIP): 2,648

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 229.367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $20,000 NEABOR MLS