25 Crescent Ridge Rd · Loughman, FL 33837

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1996 1.02 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Virtually Staged. Nestled on a full acre in a peaceful country setting, this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home is perfect for those who appreciate wide-open spaces and a relaxed rural lifestyle. The thoughtfully designed split-bedroom floor plan offers both privacy and functionality, featuring spacious living and dining areas that are ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The bright and inviting kitchen provides abundant counter space and cabinetry, along with a convenient inside laundry area located just off the kitchen. The generously sized primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an ensuite bath featuring a double-

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Inside laundry area
• Full acre

Tags

• FULL ACRE
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• ABUNDANT COUNTER SPACE
• INSIDE LAUNDRY AREA
• GENEROUSLY SIZED PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is cleared and level with paved access; Approximately 1.02 acres (lot dimensions ~100 x 445); Public-record living area 1,352 sq ft
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; East-facing; Homestead property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Living room / dining room combo; Split bedroom floorplan; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1396 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,344 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-43,631
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,940
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1396
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $970/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $197	+0% $119	+5% $41	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $31	+0% $119	+5% $207	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $189	base $119	+0.5pp $48	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3255 Laurent Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1873	$2,225	$1.19	21d	1	0.39mi
3302 Laurent Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,230	$1.21	5d	1	0.42mi
2837 Pierr St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1738	$2,100	$1.21	5d	1	0.47mi
3133 Laurent Loop Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1834	$2,000	$1.09	25d	1	0.48mi
2172 Desert Rose Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,250	$1.46	25d	1	0.69mi
1824 Brisbane Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,200	$1.38	21d	1	0.80mi
1337 Cascade Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,025	$1.34	15d	1	0.81mi
2821 Pierr St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1873	$2,000	$1.07	25d	1	0.83mi
2788 Pierr St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,150	$1.26	16d	1	0.83mi
1241 Yellow Finch Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1810	$1,900	$1.05	25d	1	1.24mi
1228 Yellow Finch Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,850	$1.08	25d	1	1.24mi
1370 Yellow Finch Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,100	$1.22	25d	1	1.29mi
1149 Blue Jay Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	5d	1	1.29mi
1153 Blue Jay Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1692	$1,900	$1.12	23d	1	1.30mi
1011 John Jacob Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,200	$1.41	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $275,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-05
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,312/yr (+$109/mo · 135.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$970
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,135
• − Management: −$2,135
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,337
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$801
• After-tax cash flow: $2,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Loughman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #17702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 23,652
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $970 · +16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.