406 Trafford Rd · Warrior, AL 35180

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1954 1.00 ac lot $136/sqft · at area comps Est $183k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this cute home situated on a large, flat yard that offers plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Relax in the gazebo and enjoy peaceful days outdoors, or take advantage of the expansive yard for gardening, entertaining, or play. Inside, the home features a large living room that provides comfortable living space and a welcoming atmosphere. A spacious front porch adds to the home’s charm and is perfect for sitting out and enjoying the surroundings. This property offers a nice blend of indoor comfort and outdoor space, making it a great opportunity for buyers seeking a functional home with room to enjoy the outdoors.

Key facts

• Gazebo
• Large flat yard
• Spacious front porch

Tags

• LARGE FLAT YARD
• GAZEBO
• SPACIOUS FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.0% in Warrior — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#360 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Warrior Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 551 students, 67% FRL); North Jefferson Middle School (math 13% / reading 45%, grade F, #134 of 257 statewide, top 53%, 666 students, 52% FRL); Mortimer Jordan High School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #114 of 305 statewide, top 38%, 861 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.98%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,365
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: 3.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9405 Asberry Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-15%)	16mo	$177,000	$149	46
112 Beck Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,254 (-10%)	8mo	$75,000	$60	44
841 Cheyenne Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-4%)	18mo	$215,000	$161	41
804 Main St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,416 (+1%)	24mo	$205,000	$145	37
826 Cheyenne Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	20mo	$220,500	$179	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-19,598
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,878
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35180

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $943/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,460

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $230	+0% $177	+5% $123	+10% $69
Rent	-10% $44	-5% $110	+0% $177	+5% $243	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $272	-0.5pp $225	base $177	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $77

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
632 Wenonah WAY Kimberly, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	12d	1	1.30mi
304 Owens St Warrior, AL	3.0	2.0	1081	$1,350	$1.25	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-01-08
   listed $189,900 Active 638-char remark

   Show marketing remark (638 chars)

   Check out this cute home situated on a large, flat yard that offers plenty of space for outdoor enjoyment. Relax in the gazebo and enjoy peaceful days outdoors, or take advantage of the expansive yard for gardening, entertaining, or play. Inside, the home features a large living room that provides comfortable living space and a welcoming atmosphere. A spacious front porch adds to the home’s charm and is perfect for sitting out and enjoying the surroundings. This property offers a nice blend of indoor comfort and outdoor space, making it a great opportunity for buyers seeking a functional home with room to enjoy the outdoors.

2. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus $175,500
3. 2023-03-31
   soldstatus $175,500 Sold 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Welcome home! You will fall head over heels with this adorable country cottage. This one level home is perfect to start out the new year in. New carpet in the Den/Family room. Pretty hardwood floors in several rooms. 2 car detached garage. Large crawl space under home that has door to entrance, great area for storage! Seller has updated the wiring and also has added a New Furnace and Central Air. Come check this adorable home out before its gone!

4. 2023-02-18
   historical Contingent 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Welcome home! You will fall head over heels with this adorable country cottage. This one level home is perfect to start out the new year in. New carpet in the Den/Family room. Pretty hardwood floors in several rooms. 2 car detached garage. Large crawl space under home that has door to entrance, great area for storage! Seller has updated the wiring and also has added a New Furnace and Central Air. Come check this adorable home out before its gone!

5. 2023-01-25
   listed $175,000 Active 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   Welcome home! You will fall head over heels with this adorable country cottage. This one level home is perfect to start out the new year in. New carpet in the Den/Family room. Pretty hardwood floors in several rooms. 2 car detached garage. Large crawl space under home that has door to entrance, great area for storage! Seller has updated the wiring and also has added a New Furnace and Central Air. Come check this adorable home out before its gone!

6. 2022-11-14
   soldstatus $150,000
7. 2022-11-03
   soldstatus $150,000 Sold
8. 2022-09-27
   status Pending
9. 2022-09-13
   status Active
10. 2022-09-07
    status Pending
11. 2022-08-14
    status Active
12. 2022-08-05
    status Pending
13. 2022-08-01
    listed $154,900 Active
14. 2022-07-31
    historical $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$943
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,616
• − Management: −$1,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,082
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$260
• After-tax cash flow: $2,379/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Warrior

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #21085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrior, AL
• Population (ZIP): 14,097

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.81%
• Current HPI: 250.1325
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+22.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $189,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $175,500 Public Records
• 2023-03-31 Sold (MLS) $175,500 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-02-18 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-01-25 Listed $175,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-03 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-09-13 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-09-07 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-08-14 Relisted — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-08-05 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-08-01 Listed $154,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2022-07-31 Coming Soon $154,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

-2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $943 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.