Pebble Beach Plan · Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

$398,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,467 sqft · SingleFamily · 132 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two Story | 4 Bedrooms | 2.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 131 days

🏗️ New construction. The $398,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $434,620.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-706 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $332k (16.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Mont Belvieu — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#438 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 40d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $290,832 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $434,620
• List price: $398,990
• Delta: -8.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12131 Canal View Blvd	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,597 (+5%)	0mo	$447,420	$172	82
12014 Jacob Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,544 (+3%)	3mo	$474,900	$187	82
12115 Canal View Blvd	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,686 (+9%)	2mo	$450,000	$168	78
12319 Hackberry Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,525 (+2%)	1mo	$450,000	$178	77
12139 Canal View Blvd	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-12%)	1mo	$398,000	$183	76
12311 Sweet Gum Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,378 (-4%)	3mo	$399,900	$168	74
12019 Canal View Blvd	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-12%)	0mo	$425,000	$196	73
12343 Hackberry Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,377 (-4%)	2mo	$420,000	$177	72
11806 Salty Bend Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0	2,686 (+9%)	2mo	$475,000	$177	67
12102 Wild Bend Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,140 (-13%)	3mo	$410,000	$192	65
11827 Benes Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,140 (-13%)	2mo	$410,990	$192	61
11843 Sawgrass Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,212 (-10%)	0mo	$499,990	$226	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-114,114
• Equity at exit: $64,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-151,981
• Equity at exit: $37,578

Cash invested: $121,693 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 148 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.4 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $477,990 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 224 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,279
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$543 /mo · $6,519/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,802

Max offer price $332,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-406	-5% $-556	+0% $-706	+5% $-856	+10% $-1,006
Rent	-10% $-936	-5% $-821	+0% $-706	+5% $-591	+10% $-476
Rate	-1.0pp $-487	-0.5pp $-595	base $-706	+0.5pp $-819	+1.0pp $-933

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,655
• Closing costs: $13,039
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12510 Old River Dr Mont Belvieu, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$1,700	$1.07	4d	1	0.87mi
12510 Old River Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,400	$1.51	71d	1	0.87mi
11727 Champions Forest Dr Dayton, TX	4.0	2.5	2492	$3,700	$1.48	39d	1	0.99mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $382,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Pebble Beach)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Located at 11902 Perch Dr, Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Pebble Beach (new construction inventory)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $398,990 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $398,990 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $398,990 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $398,990 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $398,990 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $398,990 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $398,990 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $398,990 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $398,990 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $398,990 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $398,990 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $398,990 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $398,990 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $398,990 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $398,990 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $398,990 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $398,990 Active 110 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $398,990 Active 108 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $398,990 Active 106 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $398,990 Active 105 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $398,990 Active 104 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $398,990 Active 102 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $398,990 Active 101 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $398,990 Active 100 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $398,990 Active 99 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $398,990 Active 98 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $398,990 Active 97 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $398,990 Active 96 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $398,990 Active 95 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $398,990 Active 94 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $398,990 Active 93 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $398,990 Active 92 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $398,990 Active 91 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $398,990 Active 90 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $398,990 Active 89 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $398,990 Active 88 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $398,990 Active 87 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $398,990 Active 86 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $398,990 Active 85 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $398,990 Active 83 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $398,990 Active 82 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $398,990 Active 81 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $398,990 Active 80 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $398,990 Active 77 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $398,990 Active 75 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $398,990 Active 74 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $398,990 Active 72 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $398,990 Active 70 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $398,990 Active 69 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $398,990 Active 68 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,345
• − Property taxes: −$6,519
• − Insurance: −$2,173
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,792
• − Management: −$2,792
• − Depreciation: −$12,643
• Taxable loss: −$16,365
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,928
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great balance of curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it a strong candidate for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Mont Belvieu

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #8944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 46,946 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

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Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $382,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Pebble Beach)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Located at 11902 Perch Dr, Mont Belvieu, TX 77523

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Pebble Beach (new construction inventory)