ALDER Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$221,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 948 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story Alder floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side. This design offers some versatility in how the secondary bedrooms can be used - possibly a home office or nursery could be some options for the these rooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 947 days

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,608.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 948 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $193,585 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 948 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,608
• List price: $221,990
• Delta: -7.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
426 Harrison Hope Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	4mo	$199,900	$155	93
11518 Prosperity Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	8mo	$224,900	$175	91
11527 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	9mo	$199,900	$155	89
454 Harrison Hope Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	7mo	$229,900	$178	88
422 Harrison Hope Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	1mo	$226,900	$163	83
11611 Heritage Wind Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	1mo	$239,900	$173	81
11627 Heritage Wind Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	2mo	$229,900	$166	80
430 Harrison Hope Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	5mo	$214,900	$155	78
11503 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	6mo	$237,900	$171	78
11515 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	7mo	$234,900	$169	77
450 Harrison Hope Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	7mo	$234,900	$169	75
424 Zinn Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-6%)	9mo	$150,000	$123	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-49,774
• Equity at exit: $35,726

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-65,211
• Equity at exit: $20,717

Cash invested: $67,090 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $224,900 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 47 d
• This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1446
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,257
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,594/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,096

Max offer price $221,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-44	+0% $-127	+5% $-209	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-203	+0% $-127	+5% $-50	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-66	base $-127	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,902
• Closing costs: $7,188
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12215 Crosby Lynchburg Rd Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,400	$1.28	16d	1	0.65mi
700 Farm to Market Road 1942 Unit 7A Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,310	$1.28	21d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $221,990 Active 948 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $221,990 Active 946 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $221,990 Active 945 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $221,990 Active 944 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $221,990 Active 943 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $221,990 Active 940 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $221,990 Active 939 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $221,990 Active 938 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $221,990 Active 937 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $221,990 Active 935 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $221,990 Active 933 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $221,990 Active 932 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $221,990 Active 931 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $221,990 Active 930 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $221,990 Active 929 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $221,990 Active 927 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $221,990 Active 926 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $221,990 Active 925 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $221,990 Active 924 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $221,990 Active 922 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $221,990 Active 921 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $221,990 Active 920 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $221,990 Active 919 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $221,990 Active 918 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $221,990 Active 916 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $221,990 Active 915 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $221,990 Active 914 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $221,990 Active 913 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $221,990 Active 912 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $221,990 Active 911 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $221,990 Active 910 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $221,990 Active 909 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $221,990 Active 908 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $221,990 Active 907 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $221,990 Active 906 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $221,990 Active 903 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $221,990 Active 901 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $221,990 Active 900 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $221,990 Active 897 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $221,990 Active 896 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $221,990 Active 895 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $221,990 Active 894 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $221,990 Active 892 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $221,990 Active 888 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $221,990 Active 887 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $221,990 Active 886 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $221,990 Active 883 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $221,990 Active 881 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $221,990 Active 880 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $221,990 Active 879 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,422
• − Property taxes: −$3,594
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,858
• − Management: −$1,858
• − Depreciation: −$6,970
• Taxable loss: −$5,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $-158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,440–$19,320 screening

This single-family home in Barrett, TX, is in good condition with a good layout and curb appeal. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $221,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-03 Listed $231,990 Zillow