ALDER Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$221,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 1040 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't let the square footage number fool you, the open design of the one-story Alder floor plan shows how a well thought out space can feel bright and airy, while serving all the needs of the home buyer. The huge island kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room - making it the perfect space to gather when entertaining. The creative use of space in the Alder spotlights a spacious primary suite privately situated on one side of the home, while the two other secondary bedrooms are on the other side. This design offers some versatility in how the secondary bedrooms can be used - possibly a home office or nursery could be some options for the these rooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1039 days

🏗️ New construction. The $221,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $242,701.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 108d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1040 days — a 12% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $195,351 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1040 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $242,701
• List price: $221,990
• Delta: -8.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11514 Heritage Wind Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	1mo	$199,900	$155	94
11538 Heritage Wind Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	1mo	$224,900	$175	94
426 Harrison Hope Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	6mo	$199,900	$155	91
454 Harrison Hope Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	10mo	$229,900	$178	85
11515 Heritage Wind Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	1mo	$199,900	$144	83
422 Harrison Hope Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$226,900	$163	80
11611 Heritage Wind Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$239,900	$173	79
11627 Heritage Wind Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	4mo	$229,900	$166	78
430 Harrison Hope Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	8mo	$214,900	$155	76
11503 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	9mo	$237,900	$171	75
11515 Gristmill Grange Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	10mo	$234,900	$169	75
450 Harrison Hope Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+8%)	10mo	$234,900	$169	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-49,029
• Equity at exit: $36,187

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-63,170
• Equity at exit: $20,984

Cash invested: $67,956 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.7 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $213,490 ($147/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: 55% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,989 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,273
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$303 /mo · $3,641/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,123

Max offer price $227,402

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $-22	+0% $-106	+5% $-190	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-263	-5% $-184	+0% $-106	+5% $-27	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-44	base $-106	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,675
• Closing costs: $7,281
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11606 Prosperity Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,850	$1.44	10d	1	0.08mi
12215 Crosby Lynchburg Rd Crosby, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,400	$1.28	107d	1	0.65mi
700 Farm to Market Road 1942 Unit 7A Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,310	$1.28	113d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $221,990 Active 1040 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $221,990 Active 1039 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $221,990 Active 1038 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $221,990 Active 1037 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $221,990 Active 1036 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $221,990 Active 1034 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $221,990 Active 1033 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $221,990 Active 1032 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $221,990 Active 1031 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $221,990 Active 1030 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $221,990 Active 1029 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $221,990 Active 1028 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $221,990 Active 1027 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $221,990 Active 1026 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $221,990 Active 1025 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $221,990 Active 1024 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $221,990 Active 1023 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $221,990 Active 1022 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $221,990 Active 1021 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $221,990 Active 1020 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $221,990 Active 1019 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $221,990 Active 1018 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $221,990 Active 1017 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $221,990 Active 1016 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $221,990 Active 1015 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $221,990 Active 1014 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $221,990 Active 1013 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $221,990 Active 1012 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $221,990 Active 1011 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $221,990 Active 1010 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $221,990 Active 1009 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $221,990 Active 1008 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $221,990 Active 1007 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $221,990 Active 1006 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $221,990 Active 1005 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $221,990 Active 1004 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $221,990 Active 1003 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $221,990 Active 1002 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $221,990 Active 1001 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $221,990 Active 1000 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $221,990 Active 999 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $221,990 Active 998 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $221,990 Active 997 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $221,990 Active 996 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $221,990 Active 995 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $221,990 Active 994 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $221,990 Active 993 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $221,990 Active 992 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $221,990 Active 991 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $221,990 Active 990 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,595
• − Property taxes: −$3,641
• − Insurance: −$1,214
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$7,060
• Taxable loss: −$5,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $41/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,440–$19,320 screening

This single-family home in Barrett, TX, is in good condition with a good layout and curb appeal. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

High Crosby H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $221,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-01 Price Changed $232,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-03 Listed $231,990 Zillow