10412 White Lake Ct · Westchase, FL 33626

$265,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2013

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming First-Floor Condo with Modern Upgrades: This beautifully renovated first-story condo offers the perfect blend of modern updates and cozy charm, just 50 feet from lake access in a gated community. Interior Highlights: Recently renovated with stylish finishes Elegant quartz countertops in the kitchen Whirlpool & amp; Frigidaire appliances (all just 3 years old) Herringbone-patterned kitchen floor for added character Board & amp; batten and shiplap accents throughout New closet storage for optimal organization Washer & amp; dryer included Significant storage space with 2 pantries Convenience & amp; Community: Parking just 15 feet from the front door First-floor acces

Key facts

• Gated community
• Whirlpool appliances
• Lake access

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• GATED COMMUNITY
• ELEGANT QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• FRIGIDAIRE APPLIANCES
• BOARD AND BATTEN ACCENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#320 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 205 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 48% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,538 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.68%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -57.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-118,124
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.88×
• Total profit: $-213,906
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33626

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$250 /mo · $3,002/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,006
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,489

Max offer price $71,918

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10412 White Lake Ct #10412 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,500	$2.19	24d	1	0.03mi
10440 White Lake Ct #10440 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,700	$1.49	2d	1	0.03mi
10440 White Lake Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,700	$1.49	1d	1	0.04mi
9744 Lake Chase Island Way Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,900	$1.67	17d	1	0.07mi
10534 White Lake Ct #10534 Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,995	$1.45	24d	1	0.08mi
10462 White Lake Ct Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,975	$1.69	24d	1	0.08mi
9646 Lake Chase Island Way Unit 9646 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$2,200	$1.60	4d	1	0.10mi
9068 Lake Chase Island Way Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,000	$1.75	24d	1	0.13mi
9108 Lake Chase Island Way #9108 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	904	$1,500	$1.66	4d	1	0.21mi
11905 Cypress Vista Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1200	$2,495	$2.08	4d	1	0.33mi
11804 Cypress Hill Cir #45 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	24d	1	0.42mi
8801 Citrus Village Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1144	$1,998	$1.75	1d	36	0.46mi
11013 Blaine Top Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1147	$2,100	$1.83	4d	1	0.74mi
11003 Blaine Top Pl Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1147	$2,200	$1.92	24d	1	0.75mi
10142 Montague St Unit 1475289P Westchase, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$4,115	$3.06	15d	1	0.84mi
12011 Citrus Falls Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	966	$1,884	$1.95	2d	27	0.93mi
9874 Montague St Unit 1475279P Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1345	$4,126	$3.07	1d	1	1.02mi
8741 Exposition Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,450	$1.79	2d	1	1.05mi
9508 W Park Village Dr #107 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,475	$1.94	23d	1	1.06mi
8735 Exposition Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,699	$2.16	17d	1	1.07mi
9781 Magnolia Blossom Dr Unit 1475280P Westchase, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,624	$2.69	15d	1	1.09mi
9902 Brompton Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1303	$2,170	$1.67	2d	38	1.11mi
10020 Tate Ln Tampa, FL	2.0	2.5	1276	$2,650	$2.08	17d	1	1.11mi
9533 Magnolia Blossom Dr Unit 1504550P Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1119	$5,304	$4.74	24d	1	1.11mi
9763 Magnolia Blossom Dr Unit 1475286P Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,559	$2.65	20d	1	1.12mi
9763 Magnolia Blossom Dr Unit 1475288P Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,522	$2.62	16d	1	1.12mi
9763 Magnolia Blossom Dr Unit 1475282P Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,608	$2.68	4d	1	1.12mi
8820 Thomas Oaks Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$2,223	$2.13	1d	22	1.17mi
8035 Gardner Rd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	880	$2,650	$3.01	24d	2	1.26mi
8774 Huntfield St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1388	$3,100	$2.23	4d	1	1.44mi
8134 Colonial Village Dr Tampa, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,985	$1.78	1d	12	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-12
    listed $265,000 Active 1160-char remark
13. 2021-12-01
    soldstatus $243,000
14. 2019-10-01
    soldstatus $62,955
15. 2004-11-18
    soldstatus $40,269,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,002 · $250/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,002 · $250/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,002
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − HOA: −$12,072
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$17,730
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,255
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Westchase

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #5558

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westchase, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 30,575
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,575
• Household income: $127,118
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.80%
• Current HPI: 241.882
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.66%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $243,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,955 Public Records
• 2004-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,269,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,002 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.