1426 E 16th St · National City, CA 91950

$1,150,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1955 Est $1060k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 5 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

1426 E 16th Street presents a rare opportunity to acquire a 5 unit multifamily property in National City with strong value add potential and future development upside. The property consists of five 1 bedroom 1 bathroom units situated on a large 10,075 square foot RS 2 zoned lot. A new owner will have the ability to begin improvements on multiple units in the near term, allowing for an accelerated repositioning strategy and increased rental income. Current rents in the occupied income producing units are below market, creating a clear path to upside through interior renovations. The large lot and zoning may also provide future expansion or development potential, offering multiple strategies

Key facts

• Value add potential
• Multifamily property
• Large lot

Tags

• MULTIFAMILY PROPERTY
• VALUE ADD POTENTIAL
• LARGE LOT
• RS 2 ZONED LOT
• INTERIOR RENOVATIONS
• RENTAL INCOME

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 2,200 square feet

Exterior

• Home design: Residential income property; Com-Res income subtype
• Construction: Frame construction

Interior

• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No central cooling
• Interior features: No central cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $1.15M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive. Per door: $50/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $963k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $963k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in National City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#430 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Sweetwater Union High (suburban): math 36% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #187 of 517 in CA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: National City Middle (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #224 of 498 statewide, top 46%, 698 students, 93% FRL); Sweetwater High (math 26% / reading 49%, grade F, #576 of 1,170 statewide, top 49%, 2,679 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 53% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,632/mo this rent would consume 174% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 3672% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.12M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $963,200 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.94%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,060,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1426 E 16th St	0.00mi	5/5.0	2,200 (0%)	0mo	$1,060,000	$482	100
2110-14 K Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,187 (-1%)	11mo	$750,000	$343	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.76% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-172,817
• Equity at exit: $171,469

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-140,153
• Equity at exit: $99,431

Cash invested: $322,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91950

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 49.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,031
• Tax from tax record: −$847 /mo · $10,165/yr
• Insurance: −$479
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,023
• Net cashflow: $252

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,313

Max offer price $1,150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $903	-5% $578	+0% $252	+5% $-73	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-509	-5% $-128	+0% $252	+5% $633	+10% $1,013
Rate	-1.0pp $831	-0.5pp $545	base $252	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-349

5-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 5× units	1	1	$9,630
Total (5 units)			$9,632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $287,500
• Closing costs: $34,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1609 Grove St Unit B National City, CA	4.0	4.5	2900	$4,350	$1.50	0d	1	0.43mi
2304 E 14th St Unit 1464994P National City, CA	4.0	2.0	1431	$5,963	$4.17	0d	1	0.55mi
740 Mariposa Cir National City, CA	4.0	2.5	1661	$3,895	$2.34	0d	1	0.62mi
819 D Ave National City, CA	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	1917	$4,695	$2.45	0d	2	0.82mi
1983 Altamont Cir San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	2120	$4,100	$1.93	26d	1	1.22mi
2795 Hopkins St San Diego, CA	4.0	3.0	1440	$5,300	$3.68	26d	1	1.39mi
5916 Albemarle St San Diego, CA	4.0	2.0	1659	$4,200	$2.53	26d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $1,150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,165 · $847/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,165 · $847/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $115,584
• − Mortgage interest: −$64,418
• − Property taxes: −$10,165
• − Insurance: −$5,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,247
• − Management: −$9,247
• − Depreciation: −$33,455
• Taxable loss: −$16,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,007
• After-tax cash flow: $7,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sweetwater Union High
• NCES district ID: 0638640
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,051
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4158
• State rank: #187 of 517 in CA

Livability — National City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #14530

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: National City, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 59,891
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 59,891
• Household income: $66,426
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3672.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 22% Asian 16% White 9% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 55% Tagalog/Filipino 12% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -495.29%
• Current HPI: 451.3388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.76%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — SDMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $1,150,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,165 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.