7706 Lakewood Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1968 7,440 sqft lot Est $147k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this GORGEOUS recently renovated 4 bedroom 1 1/2 Bath with a huge backyard in Northeast Houston's established Scenic woods neighborhood. With living space, hard-surface flooring throughout, new countertops, renovated bathrooms, new doorknobs, faucets, much more and overlooking a massive fully usable backyard, this home is perfect for families, first-time buyers, or savvy investors. Conveniently located near major highways, Houston ISD schools, and local amenities — and priced to sell. Don't miss this one!

Key facts

• Renovated bathrooms
• Huge backyard
• New countertops

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• HARD-SURFACE FLOORING
• FULLY USABLE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1968; Shingle and wood roof; Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 12); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 13 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 11); Four total rooms (includes bedrooms)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-731/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,159 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7706 Lakewood Dr	0.00mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,084 (0%)	1mo	$209,000	$193	92
10206 Cheeves Dr	0.21mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,098 (+1%)	6mo	$130,000	$118	76
7449 Gleason Rd	0.28mi	3/1.5	1,124 (+4%)	6mo	$169,000	$150	74
8203 Burnt Orchid Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,076 (-1%)	1mo	$249,900	$232	65
7437 Navasota St	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	2mo	$165,000	$165	64
7421 Claiborne St	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-1%)	0mo	$129,900	$121	64
10317 Kelburn Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+2%)	2mo	$175,000	$158	62
7314 Bigwood St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,122 (+4%)	2mo	$90,000	$80	59
7402 Yoe St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,162 (+7%)	6mo	$83,900	$72	56
7261 Boggess Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (+8%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	55
7218 Bretshire Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,013 (-6%)	3mo	$109,000	$108	49
7234 Boggess Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+14%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $86,758
• Equity at exit: $168,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.23×
• Total profit: $247,443
• Equity at exit: $342,958

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,380/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $198,242

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	7d	1	0.09mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	7d	1	0.25mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	13d	1	0.53mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	43d	1	0.54mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	43d	1	0.55mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	18d	1	0.60mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	7d	1	0.63mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	43d	1	0.69mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	14d	1	0.87mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	14d	1	0.87mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	0.87mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	0.88mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	0.89mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	43d	1	0.93mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.93mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	43d	1	0.93mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	43d	1	0.93mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	43d	1	0.93mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	43d	1	0.97mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.04mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	43d	1	1.10mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	20d	1	1.26mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.26mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	43d	1	1.32mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	43d	1	1.33mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-05
   listed $209,000 Active
5. 2025-05-19
   soldstatus
6. 1992-03-19
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,380 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,445/yr (+$120/mo · 60.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,380
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,605
• − Management: −$1,605
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,047
• After-tax cash flow: $316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,380 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.