7934 Alset Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$310,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,952 sqft · Land · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 3,800 sqft lot $159/sqft · 8% above area Est $287k · 8% over $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Dining area
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $217,361 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.76%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,400
• List price: $310,900
• Delta: 8.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $150,776
• Equity at exit: $280,083

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $443,442
• Equity at exit: $604,010

Cash invested: $87,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,427

Max offer price $275,590

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,725
• Closing costs: $9,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	43d	1	0.03mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	13d	1	0.14mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,330	$1.27	5d	1	0.17mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	43d	1	0.38mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	24d	1	0.38mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	24d	1	1.17mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	12d	1	1.25mi
9396 Woodlands Pkwy Unit EASR Spring, TX	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,649	$1.31	24d	1	1.25mi
146 Black Swan Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,495	$0.98	22d	1	1.34mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	20d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,900 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-04-10
    listed $310,900 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You’ll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

15. 2026-02-26
    listed $310,900 Active 488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (488 chars)

    The main floor of the Oak plan is ideal for entertaining, boasting an open layout with a spacious great room flowing into a dining area and a kitchen with a center island and a walk-in pantry. There are three roomy bedrooms upstairs, including a primary suite showcasing a large walk-in closet and a private bath with dual sinks and a walk-in shower. You'll also find a versatile loft space, which you can transform into an exercise area, a home office, or anything that suits your needs!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,689 · $474/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,548/yr (+$379/mo · 398.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,415
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$1,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$9,044
• Taxable loss: −$7,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,917
• After-tax cash flow: $-481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $310,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $310,900 Zillow