407 Road 5102 Unit L · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$200,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.40 ac lot $170/sqft · 11% below area Est $225k · 11% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting one-story traditional home, built in 2022, sits on a generous 16,120 SF lot in Cleveland—an area experiencing rapid growth with convenient access to Hwy 99, schools, and shopping. The home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and features an open-concept layout with 9-foot ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel. The family room connects effortlessly to the kitchen and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with granite countertops, crown-molded cabinetry, and under-cabinet lighting. The primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat and includes ceiling fans for added comfort. Wired security cameras provide added peace of mind. Step outside to an expansive backyard with ample green space—perfect for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, or simply enjoying the fresh air. Ideal for first-time buyers or anyone looking for room to grow, this home offers comfort, practicality, and a prime location for today’s lifestyle.

Key facts

• Expansive backyard
• Granite countertops
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CROWN-MOLDED CABINETRY
• UNDER-CABINET LIGHTING
• WIRED SECURITY CAMERAS
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (11.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,065 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.89%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,806
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -6.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Road 51024	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-3%)	0mo	$190,000	$167	80
116 County Road 51030	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+0%)	16mo	$225,990	$191	72
885 Road 5102	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,301 (+11%)	10mo	$254,990	$196	66
1437 Rd 5102	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+3%)	17mo	$177,990	$147	61
867 Road 5102	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	12mo	$249,990	$192	60
103 County Road 5102a	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+0%)	23mo	$234,990	$199	57
1514 Rd 5102	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+3%)	19mo	$181,990	$151	57
1564 Road 5102	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+3%)	22mo	$194,990	$161	53
191 Road 51022	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+5%)	6mo	$259,500	$211	53
86 County Road 51030	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+11%)	22mo	$240,990	$185	51
94 Road 51024	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+14%)	23mo	$215,000	$161	44
260 Road 5107	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+15%)	21mo	$205,000	$152	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-40,506
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,634
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,846

Max offer price $177,629

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	22d	1	0.73mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    listed $210,000 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    This inviting one-story traditional home, built in 2022, sits on a generous 16,120 SF lot in Cleveland—an area experiencing rapid growth with convenient access to Hwy 99, schools, and shopping. The home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and features an open-concept layout with 9-foot ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel. The family room connects effortlessly to the kitchen and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with granite countertops, crown-molded cabinetry, and under-cabinet lighting. The primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat and includes ceiling fans for added comfort. Wired security cameras provide added peace of mind. Step outside to an expansive backyard with ample green space—perfect for outdoor gatherings, cookouts, or simply enjoying the fresh air. Ideal for first-time buyers or anyone looking for room to grow, this home offers comfort, practicality, and a prime location for today’s lifestyle.

15. 2025-05-02
    historical $1,700
16. 2025-05-02
    historical
17. 2025-04-09
    listed $1,700
18. 2025-03-25
    listed $214,990 Active
19. 2025-03-24
    historical
20. 2025-03-06
    listed $220,000 Active
21. 2022-02-24
    soldstatus Sold
22. 2022-01-28
    status Pending
23. 2021-07-23
    status Option Pending
24. 2021-06-20
    status Pending
25. 2021-06-18
    listed $192,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,808
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,798
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,300
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,272
• After-tax cash flow: $-583/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This inviting one-story traditional home, built in 2022, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern updates, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both security system — enhances safety and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both security system — enhances safety and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-18 Listed $192,990 HARMLS