407 Road 5102 Unit L · Cleveland, TX 77327

$195,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily · 39 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 0.40 ac lot Garage $166/sqft · 13% below area Est $224k · 13% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This inviting one-story traditional home, built in 2022, sits on a generous 16,120 SF lot in Cleveland—an area experiencing rapid growth with convenient access to Hwy 99, schools, and shopping. The home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and features an open-concept layout with 9-foot ceilings that create a bright, spacious feel. The family room connects effortlessly to the kitchen and dining areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with granite countertops, crown-molded cabinetry, and under-cabinet lighting. The primary suite serves as a relaxing retreat and includes ceiling fans for added comfort.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Expansive backyard
• Open concept layout

Tags

• ONE STORY TRADITIONAL HOME
• GENEROUS LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WELL APPOINTED KITCHEN
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• WIRED SECURITY CAMERAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-29/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cottonwood El (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,470 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 97% FRL); Santa Fe Middle (915 students, 99% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2304 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,538 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,495
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -13.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Road 51024	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-3%)	5mo	$190,000	$167	76
116 County Road 51030	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+0%)	20mo	$225,990	$191	68
885 Road 5102	0.17mi	3/3.0	1,301 (+11%)	15mo	$254,990	$196	62
1437 Rd 5102	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+3%)	22mo	$177,990	$147	57
867 Road 5102	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+10%)	16mo	$249,990	$192	56
1514 Rd 5102	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+3%)	23mo	$181,990	$151	53
191 Road 51022	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+5%)	11mo	$259,500	$211	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-29,979
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,877
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 75.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $219,900 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 116 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2304
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,715 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $194,645

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $65	+0% $-2	+5% $-70	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-70	+0% $-2	+5% $65	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $47	base $-2	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
51 Road 5102 B Cleveland, TX	3.0	3.0	1338	$1,750	$1.31	77d	1	0.18mi
885 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	163d	1	0.73mi
895 Road 51023 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	184d	1	0.75mi
832 Road 5138 Unit A Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,750	$1.59	10d	1	0.96mi
396 Road 5138 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,195	$0.94	7d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (main-level primary and all bedrooms down)
• Construction: Brick exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2021Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardLocated on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveBreakfast barOpen to family room
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Plank flooringVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: All bedrooms located on the main levelBreakfast barKitchen and family room combinedMain-level primary bedroomTub/showerWalk-in closetsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $195,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $195,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $195,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $195,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $195,000 Active 16 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $195,000 Active 15 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    pricedays on marketlisting id $195,000 Active 1 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 126 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $200,000 Active 125 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $200,000 Active 124 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $200,000 Active 123 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $200,000 Active 122 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $200,000 Active 121 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $200,000 Active 117 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $200,000 Active 116 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $200,000 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,325
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$798
• After-tax cash flow: $769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,880–$17,640 screening

This inviting one-story traditional home, built in 2022, is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and modern updates, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both security system — enhances safety and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Cottonwood El F TX #3,470/4,322 Nat'l #32,906/41,679 Middle Santa Fe Middle High Cleveland H S F TX #1,077/1,632 Nat'l #10,806/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte POA with an annual fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story (main-level primary and all bedrooms down)
• Construction: Brick exteriorComposition roofBuilt in 2021Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yardLocated on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowaveBreakfast barOpen to family room
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Plank flooringVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
• Interior features: All bedrooms located on the main levelBreakfast barKitchen and family room combinedMain-level primary bedroomTub/showerWalk-in closetsCeiling fansProgrammable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-09-30 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Rental Removed $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2025-03-25 Listed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-18 Listed $192,990 HARMLS