5424 Corduroy Rd · Denton, TX 76249

$300,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · Land · 65 Days on market

Built 2025 4,600 sqft lot $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

D. R. Horton, America's Builder is NOW SELLING in the New fabulous Community of Hickory Grove in Denton and Krum ISD!! The two-story Franklin Floorplan, Elevation X, with an estimated Spring completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage with a family-friendly layout that combines open-concept living with ample private bedroom space. The kitchen, dining area, and family room connect effortlessly, creating a bright and functional hub perfect for daily living and entertaining. The stylish kitchen includes quartz countertops, 36 inch painted cabinets, stainless steel Frigidaire appliances, a electric range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for generous

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept living
• Stylish kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $301k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Krum ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #218 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blanche Dodd El (math 45% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 312 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $260,402 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-33,589
• Equity at exit: $44,879

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-10,036
• Equity at exit: $26,024

Cash invested: $84,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76249

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,578
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $660/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $300,990

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,248
• Closing costs: $9,030
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5533 Flannel Ln Krum, TX	4.0	2.0	1572	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.08mi
5568 Corduroy Rd Krum, TX	4.0	2.5	1568	$2,100	$1.34	5d	1	0.16mi
1504 Tin Roof Rd Krum, TX	5.0	3.0	2044	$2,800	$1.37	43d	1	0.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-10
   price $300,990
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $306,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $660 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,508 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,848/yr (+$404/mo · 734.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,860
• − Property taxes: −$660
• − Insurance: −$1,505
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,756
• Taxable loss: −$2,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$535
• After-tax cash flow: $3,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Krum ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825980
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $71,808
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3664
• State rank: #218 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,637
• Household income: $120,169
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 134.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.45%
• Current HPI: 276.067
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $300,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $306,990 NTREIS