Victoria Plan · Amarillo, TX 79124

$214,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,005 sqft · SingleFamily · 650 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

Key facts

• Front and back yards
• Garage
• Listed 650 days

Tags

• CHARMING BRICK EXTERIOR
• COVERED FRONT ENTRYWAY
• ATTACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• FRONT AND BACK YARDS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($362/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillside El (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 348 students, 33% FRL); Greenways Int (math 73% / reading 50%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 619 students, 35% FRL); Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 310 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 650 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,156 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 650 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.60%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-32,882
• Equity at exit: $32,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-26,042
• Equity at exit: $18,585

Cash invested: $60,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79124

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 310
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $214,950

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $179	-5% $104	+0% $30	+5% $-44	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-46	+0% $30	+5% $106	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $138	-0.5pp $85	base $30	+0.5pp $-26	+1.0pp $-82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,738
• Closing costs: $6,448
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2808 Haystack Way Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,850	$1.83	45d	1	0.40mi
8910 Hockley St Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,850	$1.84	45d	1	0.44mi
2801 Ranch House Rd Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,100	$1.74	45d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $214,950 Active 650 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,950 Active 647 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,950 Active 646 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,950 Active 645 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,950 Active 644 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $214,950 Active 642 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,950 Active 641 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $214,950 Active 639 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,950 Active 638 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $214,950 Active 637 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $214,950 Active 636 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $214,950 Active 633 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,950 Active 632 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,950 Active 631 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,950 Active 630 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,950 Active 629 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $205,950 Active 628 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    price $205,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

19. 2025-06-04
    price $199,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

20. 2025-03-26
    price $201,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

21. 2024-10-11
    status Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

22. 2024-09-28
    historical 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

23. 2024-09-23
    price $204,950 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

24. 2024-08-27
    listed $206,950 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    The 1,000 square-foot Victoria floor plan is a smart, comfortable start to homeownership with features that make everyday living easy. Brick and vinyl exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasGranite or quartz countertopsKitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesPrivate primary suite with walk-in closet

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,041
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$6,253
• Taxable loss: −$3,254
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$781
• After-tax cash flow: $1,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Amarillo, TX, is in good condition with a good curb appeal and features that make everyday living easy. Minor updates could further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• City population: 185,802
• Population (ZIP): 11,800

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.66%
• Current HPI: 165.6073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $205,950 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $199,950 Zillow
• 2025-03-26 Price Changed $201,950 Zillow
• 2024-10-11 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-28 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $204,950 Zillow
• 2024-08-27 Listed $206,950 Zillow