10203 Forum Park Dr #230 · Houston, TX 77036

$52,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 680 sqft · Condo public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1979 $76/sqft · at area comps Est $54k · at est. $260/mo HOA · 32% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +0.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to the Ashwood Condo community! This charming one-bedroom, one-bath condo offers an open living and dining area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The spacious layout provides a comfortable atmosphere, ideal for unwinding after a busy day or hosting family and friends. The community features controlled access gates and full-sun swimming pool to beat the heat. Conveniently located near Southwest Freeway and the Beltway. Easy access to lots of showing centers and entertainment.

Key facts

• $260 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $52k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-740/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $41k (20.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($807 rent vs $52k).
• Recommended offer: $41k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Alief ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #717 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Best El (math 11% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,225 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 674 students, 92% FRL); Olle Middle (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 1,067 students, 90% FRL); Alief Isd J J A E P (13 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-6.6%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $360 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $380 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $41,112 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
10. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,570
• List price: $52,000
• Delta: -2.93%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.73% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-9,352
• Equity at exit: $13,226

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-16,547
• Equity at exit: $14,472

Cash invested: $14,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77036

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$273
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $944/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$170
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $41,112

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-32	-5% $-47	+0% $-62	+5% $-76	+10% $-91
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-94	+0% $-62	+5% $-30	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-48	base $-62	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,000
• Closing costs: $1,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10107 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$770	$1.40	23d	1	0.06mi
10107 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$770	$1.40	45d	1	0.06mi
10101 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$859	$1.04	0d	22	0.13mi
9898 Forum Park Dr Unit 6406 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$925	$1.23	45d	1	0.16mi
10009 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	543	$819	$1.51	45d	1	0.18mi
10009 Forum Park Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	543	$819	$1.51	23d	1	0.18mi
10225 Bissonnet St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	992	$795	$0.80	0d	45	0.30mi
10101 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	809	$850	$1.05	45d	1	0.33mi
10286 Forum West Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	553	$830	$1.50	45d	1	0.35mi
10286 Forum West Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	553	$830	$1.50	20d	1	0.35mi
9502 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	711	$640	$0.90	5d	31	0.48mi
9502 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	636	$640	$1.01	45d	31	0.48mi
13 South Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	588	$894	$1.52	45d	1	0.62mi
9445 Concourse Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$601	$0.84	0d	21	0.63mi
9430 Concourse Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	719	$842	$1.17	14d	1	0.64mi
9475 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	725	$773	$1.07	7d	18	0.68mi
10440 South Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	773	$965	$1.25	3d	27	0.71mi
14 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	619	$779	$1.26	45d	1	0.72mi
14 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	619	$779	$1.26	23d	1	0.72mi
9303 Woodfair Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	791	$795	$1.01	45d	42	0.72mi
9907 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$795	$1.56	45d	1	0.82mi
9907 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	510	$795	$1.56	23d	1	0.82mi
9901 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$645	$0.75	3d	13	0.85mi
9255 W Sam Houston Pkwy S Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	750	$1,049	$1.40	45d	1	1.00mi
10300 S Wilcrest Dr Unit 10374 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$779	$1.20	14d	1	1.00mi
10300 S Wilcrest Dr Unit 10374 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$733	$1.13	0d	1	1.00mi
10300 S Wilcrest Dr Unit 10351 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$733	$1.13	14d	1	1.00mi
10000 Club Creek Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	670	$808	$1.20	12d	1	1.05mi
8600 S Course Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	706	$680	$0.96	0d	31	1.06mi
10411 South Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$899	$1.19	45d	1	1.10mi
9001 S Braeswood Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	739	$602	$0.81	1d	26	1.13mi
9001 S Braeswood Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	739	$728	$0.99	45d	26	1.13mi
8901 Bissonnet St Unit 044 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	675	$710	$1.05	45d	1	1.26mi
8901 Bissonnet St Unit 129 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$740	$0.99	45d	1	1.26mi
10215 Beechnut St Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$809	$1.15	12d	1	1.30mi
9707 Braeburn Glen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	905	$810	$0.90	9d	15	1.30mi
10555 Spice Ln Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$755	$0.81	0d	15	1.30mi
10215 Beechnut St Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	705	$854	$1.21	14d	1	1.31mi
10750 Westbrae Pkwy Unit 1047 Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$889	$1.35	20d	1	1.31mi
10750 Westbrae Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$854	$1.29	14d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $52,000 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $52,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $52,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    price $52,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome home to the Ashwood Condo community! This charming one-bedroom, one-bath condo offers an open living and dining area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The spacious layout provides a comfortable atmosphere, ideal for unwinding after a busy day or hosting family and friends. The community features controlled access gates and full-sun swimming pool to beat the heat. Conveniently located near Southwest Freeway and the Beltway. Easy access to lots of showing centers and entertainment.

16. 2026-02-05
    listed $59,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Welcome home to the Ashwood Condo community! This charming one-bedroom, one-bath condo offers an open living and dining area, perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. The spacious layout provides a comfortable atmosphere, ideal for unwinding after a busy day or hosting family and friends. The community features controlled access gates and full-sun swimming pool to beat the heat. Conveniently located near Southwest Freeway and the Beltway. Easy access to lots of showing centers and entertainment.

17. 2017-03-31
    soldstatus
18. 2007-03-22
    soldstatus
19. 2006-08-01
    soldstatus
20. 2006-07-07
    soldstatus
21. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,913
• − Property taxes: −$944
• − Insurance: −$1,058
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$775
• − Management: −$775
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$1,513
• Taxable loss: −$1,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$338
• After-tax cash flow: $-402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alief ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807830
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,775
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8391
• State rank: #717 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,770
• Household income: $45,716
• Rent vs Own: 82.3% rent · 17.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4374.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 28% Black 11% Asian 9% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33% Cuban 3%
• Foreign-born: 55% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 20% English-only · Spanish 66% Chinese 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.73%
• Current HPI: 221.1045
• Rent YoY: ▼ -6.62%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $52,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $59,000 HARMLS
• 2017-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $944 · +8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.