1207 Orange St · Jourdanton, TX 78026

$95,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 940 sqft · Other · 136 Days on market

Built 1997 0.34 ac lot $101/sqft · 30% below area Est $135k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a project with potential, this 2 bedroom 2 bath is a great opportunity for those with a vision! This older mobile home is ready for someone to come in and make it their own. While it needs work, it offers ample space for renovation and a spacious lot in a quiet neighborhood, this property gives you the chance to transform a fixer-upper into a charming, personalized home. Whether you're looking to remodel, add modern touches, or completely overhaul the space, this home has great potential to become something special. The large yard provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or expanding the property. Located just minutes from local amenities, parks, and schools, you'll enjoy the benefits of small-town living with easy access to everything you need.

Key facts

• Large yard
• Spacious lot
• Local amenities

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.5% in Jourdanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jourdanton ISD (town): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #258 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -29.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-4,332
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $10,445
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78026

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $941/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $780

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $201	+0% $174	+5% $147	+10% $120
Rent	-10% $95	-5% $134	+0% $174	+5% $213	+10% $253
Rate	-1.0pp $222	-0.5pp $198	base $174	+0.5pp $149	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
603 Commerce St Jourdanton, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	24d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $95,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Price Change 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Price Change 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Price Change 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Price Change 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Price Change 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Price Change 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on market $95,000 Price Change 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    price $105,000 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Looking for a project with potential, this 2 bedroom 2 bath is a great opportunity for those with a vision! This older mobile home is ready for someone to come in and make it their own. While it needs work, it offers ample space for renovation and a spacious lot in a quiet neighborhood, this property gives you the chance to transform a fixer-upper into a charming, personalized home. Whether you're looking to remodel, add modern touches, or completely overhaul the space, this home has great potential to become something special. The large yard provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or expanding the property. Located just minutes from local amenities, parks, and schools, you'll enjoy the benefits of small-town living with easy access to everything you need.

16. 2026-02-02
    listed $100,000 New 785-char remark

    Show marketing remark (785 chars)

    Looking for a project with potential, this 2 bedroom 2 bath is a great opportunity for those with a vision! This older mobile home is ready for someone to come in and make it their own. While it needs work, it offers ample space for renovation and a spacious lot in a quiet neighborhood, this property gives you the chance to transform a fixer-upper into a charming, personalized home. Whether you're looking to remodel, add modern touches, or completely overhaul the space, this home has great potential to become something special. The large yard provides plenty of room for outdoor activities, gardening, or expanding the property. Located just minutes from local amenities, parks, and schools, you'll enjoy the benefits of small-town living with easy access to everything you need.

17. 2015-06-30
    historical
18. 2015-01-05
    listed $27,000
19. 2008-10-02
    soldstatus
20. 2007-06-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $941 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$798/yr (+$66/mo · 84.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$941
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $579
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$139
• After-tax cash flow: $1,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jourdanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824960
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,581
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4116
• State rank: #258 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jourdanton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #9531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jourdanton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,438

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 20% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.13%
• Current HPI: 205.0473
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+288.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $105,000 LERA
• 2026-02-02 Listed $100,000 LERA
• 2015-06-30 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2015-01-05 Listed $27,000 LERA
• 2008-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $941 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.