41722 Merriman Ln · Auberry, CA 93602

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1974 0.34 ac lot $182/sqft · 6% below area Est $276k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bed, 2-bath cabin in peaceful Meadow Lakes. The flexible floor plan features one bedroom downstairs and two upstairs, making it ideal for families or guests. Enjoy an open living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, plus glass doors leading to a spacious wrap-around deck, perfect for taking in the Sierra scenery. The detached two-car garage includes a workshop for hobbies or storage. Relax on the .34-acre lot, stroll to the community lake and park, or explore nearby Shaver Lake and Sierra National Forest for year-round mountain recreation. This property blends comfort and adventure, perfect as a weekend retreat or full-time home. Conveniently situated about 20 minutes from Shaver Lake and an hour from the Fresno/Sanger valley areas, residents enjoy seasonal snow and easy access to year-round mountain recreation. Located near the Sierra National Forest, the area offers abundant public lands for hiking, fishing, seasonal hunting, and off-highway vehicle trails. Just 17-20 miles away, China Peak Mountain Resort provides downhill skiing and winter activities. This property offers a peaceful mountain lifestyle with adventure at your doorstep, ideal for both weekend getaways and full-time living.Bath count is different than tax records, if important, buyer to verify.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Cozy fireplace
• Workshop for hobbies

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SPACIOUS WRAP-AROUND DECK
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• WORKSHOP FOR HOBBIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $373 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.4% in Auberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#982 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Unified (rural): math 31% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #212 of 517 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $259k implies a 188% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $249,653 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.17%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,284
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -6.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41482 Chipmunk Ln	0.16mi	3/1.8	1,357 (-5%)	8mo	$299,000	$220	77
41852 Chipmunk Ln	0.15mi	3/1.8	1,501 (+5%)	22mo	$341,000	$227	65
41769 Corlew Ln	0.09mi	2/1.8 (-1)	1,512 (+6%)	22mo	$273,000	$181	62
41852 Meadow Ln	0.20mi	3/1.8	1,634 (+15%)	10mo	$325,000	$199	57
41645 Meadow Ln	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-15%)	22mo	$330,000	$271	43
41745 Auberry Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+15%)	7mo	$367,500	$225	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-18,310
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $14,300
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93602

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,601/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $373

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,025

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $259,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $280,000 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Charming 3-bed, 2-bath cabin in peaceful Meadow Lakes. The flexible floor plan features one bedroom downstairs and two upstairs, making it ideal for families or guests. Enjoy an open living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, plus glass doors leading to a spacious wrap-around deck, perfect for taking in the Sierra scenery. The detached two-car garage includes a workshop for hobbies or storage. Relax on the .34-acre lot, stroll to the community lake and park, or explore nearby Shaver Lake and Sierra National Forest for year-round mountain recreation. This property blends comfort and adventure, perfect as a weekend retreat or full-time home. Conveniently situated about 20 minutes from Shaver Lake and an hour from the Fresno/Sanger valley areas, residents enjoy seasonal snow and easy access to year-round mountain recreation. Located near the Sierra National Forest, the area offers abundant public lands for hiking, fishing, seasonal hunting, and off-highway vehicle trails. Just 17-20 miles away, China Peak Mountain Resort provides downhill skiing and winter activities. This property offers a peaceful mountain lifestyle with adventure at your doorstep, ideal for both weekend getaways and full-time living.Bath count is different than tax records, if important, buyer to verify.

16. 2026-02-25
    price $290,000 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Charming 3-bed, 2-bath cabin in peaceful Meadow Lakes. The flexible floor plan features one bedroom downstairs and two upstairs, making it ideal for families or guests. Enjoy an open living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, plus glass doors leading to a spacious wrap-around deck, perfect for taking in the Sierra scenery. The detached two-car garage includes a workshop for hobbies or storage. Relax on the .34-acre lot, stroll to the community lake and park, or explore nearby Shaver Lake and Sierra National Forest for year-round mountain recreation. This property blends comfort and adventure, perfect as a weekend retreat or full-time home. Conveniently situated about 20 minutes from Shaver Lake and an hour from the Fresno/Sanger valley areas, residents enjoy seasonal snow and easy access to year-round mountain recreation. Located near the Sierra National Forest, the area offers abundant public lands for hiking, fishing, seasonal hunting, and off-highway vehicle trails. Just 17-20 miles away, China Peak Mountain Resort provides downhill skiing and winter activities. This property offers a peaceful mountain lifestyle with adventure at your doorstep, ideal for both weekend getaways and full-time living.Bath count is different than tax records, if important, buyer to verify.

17. 2026-01-02
    listed $300,000 Active 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Charming 3-bed, 2-bath cabin in peaceful Meadow Lakes. The flexible floor plan features one bedroom downstairs and two upstairs, making it ideal for families or guests. Enjoy an open living and dining area with a cozy fireplace, plus glass doors leading to a spacious wrap-around deck, perfect for taking in the Sierra scenery. The detached two-car garage includes a workshop for hobbies or storage. Relax on the .34-acre lot, stroll to the community lake and park, or explore nearby Shaver Lake and Sierra National Forest for year-round mountain recreation. This property blends comfort and adventure, perfect as a weekend retreat or full-time home. Conveniently situated about 20 minutes from Shaver Lake and an hour from the Fresno/Sanger valley areas, residents enjoy seasonal snow and easy access to year-round mountain recreation. Located near the Sierra National Forest, the area offers abundant public lands for hiking, fishing, seasonal hunting, and off-highway vehicle trails. Just 17-20 miles away, China Peak Mountain Resort provides downhill skiing and winter activities. This property offers a peaceful mountain lifestyle with adventure at your doorstep, ideal for both weekend getaways and full-time living.Bath count is different than tax records, if important, buyer to verify.

18. 2025-10-23
    price $319,000
19. 2025-08-27
    price $329,000
20. 1999-06-03
    soldstatus $90,000
21. 1992-12-07
    soldstatus $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,601 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 23.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 66 unhealthy d/yr today · 72 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,601
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,397
• − Management: −$2,397
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $227
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$54
• After-tax cash flow: $4,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636805
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $67,384
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4539
• State rank: #212 of 517 in CA

Livability — Auberry

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #24661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auberry, CA
• City population: 3,091
• Population (ZIP): 3,091

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.97%
• Current HPI: 244.699
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+252.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $280,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $290,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2026-01-02 Listed $300,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $319,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $329,000 FRESNOMLS
• 1999-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,601 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.