Elm Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$281,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,737 sqft · SingleFamily · 1004 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Elm floor plan presents an open, two-story layout complete with three bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, and a two-car garage. . This home greets you with a spacious front porch in which you can relax with your morning coffee. Upon entering the home, you are met with stunning vinyl flooring and a foyer that leads to the combined family room and kitchen. On the way, you will find the convenient downstairs powder room equipped with a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror. The formal dining room is ideal for hosting guests, and the integrated kitchen opens up to the family room, so no one will have to miss out on a conversation! The large kitchen features plenty of counter space, granite countertops with an under-mount stainless steel sink and a ceramic tile backsplash, a kitchen island, flat-panel birch cabinets with 42" uppers, designer light fixtures, and a pantry. If you or the kids like to spend time outdoors, opt to include a covered patio! Completing the first floor is your expansive master suite including a divine master bathroom showcasing cultured marble countertops, LED down lighting, cabinetry that matches the kitchen, a super shower, and a massive walk-in closet. Right up the stairs resides the game room - a place the kids can call their own! Also upstairs is the walk-in utility room, a secondary bathroom, and two bedrooms with walk-in closets. This floor plan is uniquely designed for any lifestyle, maximizing every square foot.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1003 days

🏗️ New construction. The $281,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $341,179.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $282k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (10.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 783 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1004 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,190 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1004 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.97%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,179
• List price: $281,990
• Delta: -17.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2317 Nautica Terrace Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,666 (-4%)	2mo	$242,500	$146	67
2625 Village Azalea Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+3%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	66
13225 Anchor Bay Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+3%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	62
2322 Nautica Terrace Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-9%)	3mo	$250,000	$159	57
12211 Seacrest Ln	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,918 (+10%)	1mo	$269,900	$141	57
13016 Cobalt Cove Ct	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,963 (+13%)	2mo	$312,990	$159	57
13113 Sapphire Lake Ln	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,963 (+13%)	1mo	$319,445	$163	56
2215 Manta Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,575 (-9%)	3mo	$245,000	$156	52
2601 Village Azalea Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,932 (+11%)	1mo	$299,900	$155	50
13302 Rosemary Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+13%)	0mo	$334,990	$170	48
2917 Mariner Island Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+11%)	2mo	$360,990	$188	46
13204 Pinnacle Beach Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (+11%)	0mo	$327,990	$171	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-92,597
• Equity at exit: $50,871

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-122,091
• Equity at exit: $29,499

Cash invested: $95,530 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 90 active · 37 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $304,495 ($168/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 783
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,282 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,789
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$426 /mo · $5,118/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,069

Max offer price $251,237

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-386	-5% $-504	+0% $-622	+5% $-739	+10% $-857
Rent	-10% $-802	-5% $-712	+0% $-622	+5% $-531	+10% $-441
Rate	-1.0pp $-450	-0.5pp $-535	base $-622	+0.5pp $-710	+1.0pp $-800

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,295
• Closing costs: $10,235
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	71d	1	0.32mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,430	$2.26	0d	22	0.34mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	27d	1	0.45mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	54d	1	0.46mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	60d	1	0.64mi
3210 Gulf Fwy Texas City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,780	$2.04	0d	13	0.67mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,179	$1.18	0d	1	0.72mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	12d	1	0.72mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	7d	1	0.84mi
114 Mustang Stampede Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,050	$1.17	50d	1	0.93mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	10d	1	0.96mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	30d	1	0.96mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	16d	1	0.97mi
4302 Fenwick Rd Unit 1 Texas City, TX	4.0	3.0	1820	$2,000	$1.10	43d	1	1.22mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	1.34mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	93d	1	1.36mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $281,990 Active 1004 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $281,990 Active 1002 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $281,990 Active 1001 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $281,990 Active 1000 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $281,990 Active 999 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $281,990 Active 996 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $281,990 Active 995 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $281,990 Active 994 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $281,990 Active 993 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 991 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $281,990 Active 989 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $281,990 Active 988 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $281,990 Active 987 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $281,990 Active 986 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $281,990 Active 985 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $281,990 Active 983 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $281,990 Active 982 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $281,990 Active 981 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $281,990 Active 980 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $281,990 Active 979 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 978 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 977 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $281,990 Active 976 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $281,990 Active 975 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $281,990 Active 974 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $281,990 Active 972 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $281,990 Active 971 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $281,990 Active 970 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $281,990 Active 969 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 968 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $281,990 Active 967 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $281,990 Active 966 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $281,990 Active 965 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $281,990 Active 964 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $281,990 Active 963 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $281,990 Active 962 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $281,990 Active 961 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $281,990 Active 959 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $281,990 Active 957 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $281,990 Active 956 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $281,990 Active 953 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $281,990 Active 952 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $281,990 Active 951 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $281,990 Active 950 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $281,990 Active 948 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $281,990 Active 944 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $281,990 Active 943 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $281,990 Active 942 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $281,990 Active 939 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $281,990 Active 938 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,111
• − Property taxes: −$5,118
• − Insurance: −$2,503
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,191
• − Management: −$2,191
• − Depreciation: −$9,925
• Taxable loss: −$13,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,277
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2023-11-08 Listed $281,990 Zillow