173 John Jones Rd · Middleton, NH 03887

$174,900

1 bd · None ba · 695 sqft · Other public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2023 3.22 ac lot ↓ 46% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own this private 3.22 acre parcel of land with a hunting cabin on it! Very private location. Close proximately to lakes, mountains and the beautiful community of Wolfeboro.

Key facts

• 3.22 acre lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath other listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 951 units permitted in Strafford County in 2024 (551 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Strafford County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $175k implies a 993% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $166,917 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $108,315
• Equity at exit: $157,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.30×
• Total profit: $308,606
• Equity at exit: $339,792

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03887

• Home prices YoY: 27.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,669 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $206

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,409

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $174,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,644 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,168/yr (+$97/mo · 79.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,030
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,602
• − Management: −$1,602
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Middleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,007

Population outlook (Strafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,503 people
• By 2030: 135,377 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 139,609 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 141,803 · +7.0%
• By 2075: 149,280 · +12.7%
• By 2100: 148,667 · +12.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Strafford

• 2024 margin: D (+12.1) · D 55.5% · R 43.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: 20.4pp · 2024: 12.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.1 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+8.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+20.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 113.76%
• Current HPI: 532.4284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-46.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2015-02-11 Sold (MLS) $16,000 PrimeMLS
• 2015-02-04 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2015-02-03 Listed $29,900 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,476 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.