26810 Scarlet Willow Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$237,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · Land · 79 Days on market

Built 2026 $183/sqft · 17% below area Est $287k · 17% under $183/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Beckman Floor Plan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Lovely dining area
• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• MULTI-FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LOVELY DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,710 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.56%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,675
• List price: $237,990
• Delta: -16.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,208
• Equity at exit: $35,485

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-30,849
• Equity at exit: $20,577

Cash invested: $66,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,988

Max offer price $237,990

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,498
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	43d	1	0.54mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	43d	1	0.64mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	43d	1	0.87mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	1d	25	0.93mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.03mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	43d	1	1.08mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	43d	1	1.10mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	43d	1	1.14mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	43d	1	1.18mi
27022 Euphonia Green Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,939	$1.63	2d	1	1.35mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	24d	1	1.38mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	24d	1	1.43mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	43d	1	1.45mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	12d	1	1.46mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.48mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	12d	1	1.49mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,990 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 600-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,990 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,990 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,990 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,990 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,990 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,990 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $237,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Beckman Floor Plan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-03-31
    listed $247,990 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Beckman Floor Plan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-03-31
    historical

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Beckman Floor Plan - This new home is conveniently laid out on a single floor for maximum comfort and convenience. At its heart stands an open-concept layout connecting a spacious family room, a multi-functional kitchen and lovely dining area. The owner’s suite is situated in a private corner and comes complete with an adjoining bathroom, while the two secondary bedrooms are located near the foyer. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

18. 2026-03-16
    listed $247,990 Active
19. 2026-03-16
    historical
20. 2026-03-16
    listed $291,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,355 · $363/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,873/yr (+$323/mo · 803.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,702
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,331
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,216
• − Management: −$2,216
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,923
• Taxable loss: −$853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$205
• After-tax cash flow: $3,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $237,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $247,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $247,990 HARMLS