414 Ketcham Ave Ave · Bird City, KS 67731

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1920 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Versatile den
• Laundry mud room
• Move in ready

Tags

• MULTIPLE LIVING SPACES
• VERSATILE DEN
• LAUNDRY MUD ROOM
• CORNER LOT
• DETACHED ONE CAR GARAGE
• MOVE IN READY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story residential property
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Lot approximately 75 x 142 (0.24 acre); Zoned NC.1 / R-1

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Exhaust fan ventilation; Has heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($525/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#236 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Cheylin (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #34 of 280 in KS (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $9k; list at $100k implies a 1006% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,022 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.89%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $56,955
• Equity at exit: $89,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $165,482
• Equity at exit: $193,307

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67731

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $776/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $99,500
2. 2026-04-03
   listed $112,500 Active
3. 1996-01-01
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $776 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 80.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$776
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable loss: −$1,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheylin
• NCES district ID: 2004790
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,319
• Composite: 39.73/100
• National rank: #7999
• State rank: #34 of 280 in KS

Livability — Bird City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #10462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bird City, KS
• Population (ZIP): 880

Population outlook (Cheyenne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,625 people
• By 2030: 2,623 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 2,616 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 2,671 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 3,132 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 3,193 · +21.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Russian 8% Lithuanian 5% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cheyenne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 14.5% · R 83.3% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+69.8 2012: R+65.1 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.45%
• Current HPI: 247.5497
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1005.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $99,500 Hays MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $112,500 Hays MLS
• 1996-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $776 · +28.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.