1229 County Route 3 · Hannibal, NY 13074

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1889 1.15 ac lot $25/sqft · 86% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner lot, property offers natural gas, public water and working septic system. Build your dream home on this 1.15-acre lot that is conveniently located near Fulton, Oswego, Cayuga County, Ontario lake and SUNY Oswego College. There is currently a 4 Bedroom, 1 bath home that needs to be torn down, fill in or rehabbed. See also MLS # S1665254.

Key facts

• 1.15 acre lot
• Built 1889
• Listed 93 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,033 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Hannibal Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #471 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1889 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1889 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 121.03%
• DSCR: 6.39
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,402
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -85.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1315 County Route 3	0.40mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,662 (+3%)	22mo	$180,000	$108	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.37×
• Total profit: $93,526
• Equity at exit: $35,945

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 20.61×
• Total profit: $219,034
• Equity at exit: $77,517

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13074

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $39,900 Pending 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $39,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $39,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $39,900 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $39,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-04-21
   listed $39,900 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   Corner lot, property offers natural gas, public water and working septic system. Build your dream home on this 1.15-acre lot that is conveniently located near Fulton, Oswego, Cayuga County, Ontario lake and SUNY Oswego College. There is currently a 4 Bedroom, 1 bath home that needs to be torn down, fill in or rehabbed. See also MLS # S1665254.

8. 2026-04-14
   price $39,900 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   Country 4 Bedroom, 1 bath Colonial home needs rehab and finishing work. Corner lot, property offers natural gas, public water and working septic system. No heat other than an old wood stove. Conveniently located located near Fulton, Oswego, Cayuga County, Ontario lake and SUNY Oswego College. Cash or Rehab loan only. Not FHA, USDA or VA eligible due to the condition. House is sold in AS IS condition. See also MLS # S1675138.

9. 2026-03-06
   listed $55,000 Active 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   Country 4 Bedroom, 1 bath Colonial home needs rehab and finishing work. Corner lot, property offers natural gas, public water and working septic system. No heat other than an old wood stove. Conveniently located located near Fulton, Oswego, Cayuga County, Ontario lake and SUNY Oswego College. Cash or Rehab loan only. Not FHA, USDA or VA eligible due to the condition. House is sold in AS IS condition. See also MLS # S1675138.

10. 2019-07-01
    historical
11. 2019-04-06
    listed $42,000 Active
12. 2007-08-03
    soldstatus $61,800
13. 1997-04-01
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,305
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $13,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,289
• After-tax cash flow: $10,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hannibal Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $48,283
• Composite: 37.6/100
• National rank: #4380
• State rank: #471 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hannibal

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1033
• US rank: #20436

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,471

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.52%
• Current HPI: 299.6269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $39,900 CNYIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $39,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $55,000 CNYIS
• 2019-07-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-04-06 Listed $42,000 CNYIS
• 2007-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $61,800 Public Records
• 1997-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,793 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.