5924 Mallard Ln #231 · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$129,850

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 168 Days on market

Built 1977 $90/sqft · 13% below area Est $149k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully cared-for double-wide manufactured home located in the desirable Sierra Meadows Mobile Home Estates, a gated 55+ community (primary resident must be 55+, secondary 45+). A recent home inspection by a certified home inspector was completed, the home received a clean report, and the report is available to all buyers upon request. This home features numerous updates including dual-pane windows throughout, newer appliances, newer wood-style flooring, replaced water lines, and a newer central air conditioning system. The bright, open floor plan offers vaulted ceilings, generous natural light, and abundant built-in cabinetry. The spacious kitchen includes a dining bar, pantry closet,

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dual-pane windows
• Newer appliances

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• GATED COMMUNITY
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• NEWER WOOD-STYLE FLOORING
• REPLACED WATER LINES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $848 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,268 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.98%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,960
• List price: $129,850
• Delta: -12.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7547 Golden Eye Ln #123	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+3%)	2mo	$147,182	$99	84
7633 Woodduck Ln #67	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$89,450	$62	83
6008 Cackler Ln #88	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$94,500	$70	80
7412 Newport Ln #144	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$117,000	$81	77
7508 Bufflehead Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$165,000	$106	77
5836 Stonyford	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$155,900	$108	74
7533 Pintail Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	1mo	$232,500	$144	72
7625 Pintail Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+8%)	9mo	$114,500	$74	71
5913 Cackler Ln #62	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,244 (-14%)	1mo	$126,000	$101	70
7535 Golden Eye Ln #126	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,608 (+12%)	2mo	$199,800	$124	70
6032 Canvasback Ln	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,582 (+10%)	10mo	$119,000	$75	69
7516 Scaup Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	7mo	$123,000	$99	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $30,585
• Equity at exit: $19,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $86,668
• Equity at exit: $11,227

Cash invested: $36,358 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,600/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $848

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,099

Max offer price $129,850

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,462
• Closing costs: $3,896
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7761 Pompei Ct Unit 7763 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,705	$1.89	23d	1	0.44mi
6413 Tupelo Dr Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,000	$2.58	1d	10	0.49mi
7827 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,995	$1.94	14d	1	0.61mi
7915 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1015	$1,895	$1.87	21d	1	0.70mi
5411 Vichy Cir Antelope, CA	2.0	2.0	886	$2,375	$2.68	1d	1	0.84mi
6319 Misty Wood Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,500	$1.72	43d	1	0.87mi
7613 Luzern Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,500	$1.78	11d	1	0.97mi
7629 Downing Place Way Antelope, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,600	$2.17	1d	1	1.04mi
7120 Van Maren Ln Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,495	$1.93	17d	1	1.07mi
7135 Cobalt Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,995	$1.66	3d	1	1.16mi
6940 Trailride Way Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,695	$1.76	43d	1	1.20mi
7137 Reyn Oaks Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,450	$1.92	1d	1	1.28mi
7137 Reyn Oaks Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$2,455	$1.92	11d	1	1.28mi
7139 Baranga Dr Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	1.5	1162	$2,500	$2.15	1d	1	1.31mi
6841 Concert Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	1d	1	1.35mi
4901 Adorn Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1361	$2,450	$1.80	1d	1	1.47mi
5417 Olympic Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,795	$1.95	14d	1	1.49mi
7330 Stratford Pl #706 Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,600	$1.97	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $129,850 Pending 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,274
• − Property taxes: −$1,600
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − Depreciation: −$3,777
• Taxable income: $8,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,063
• After-tax cash flow: $8,109/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,600 · +383.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.