4197 N Concord Dr · Crystal River, FL 34428

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1982 10,490 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.2% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,141/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.95%
• DSCR: 2.73
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,502
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4055 N Little Hawk Pt	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+5%)	11mo	$233,000	$176	72
3911 N Nokomis Pt	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+11%)	8mo	$600,000	$429	55
1361 NW 19th St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-6%)	1mo	$205,000	$174	53
4462 N Tallahassee Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-11%)	20mo	$115,000	$102	52
3878 N Apalachee Pt	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-10%)	13mo	$509,000	$451	52
3617 N Hiawatha Ter	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+8%)	12mo	$230,000	$169	50
1611 NW 21st St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,092 (-13%)	10mo	$336,500	$308	48
3628 N Hiawatha Ter	0.56mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,380 (+10%)	5mo	$385,000	$279	47
1440 NW 21st St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,344 (+7%)	14mo	$150,000	$112	45
3818 N Calusa Pt	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,419 (+13%)	14mo	$575,000	$405	42
1471 NW 20th St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (-10%)	12mo	$143,800	$127	40
1860 NW 18th Ct	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,180 (-6%)	18mo	$258,000	$219	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $14,864
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $53,922
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,602/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $511	+0% $482	+5% $454	+10% $426
Rent	-10% $313	-5% $398	+0% $482	+5% $567	+10% $651
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $508	base $482	+0.5pp $456	+1.0pp $430

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10906 W Cove Harbor Dr Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1409	$2,950	$2.09	22d	1	0.23mi
11055 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,550	$1.44	22d	1	0.23mi
11057 W Harbor Watch Loop Crystal River, FL	2.0	1.5	1074	$1,495	$1.39	22d	1	0.24mi
10785 W Spring Cir Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	22d	1	0.24mi
1701 NW 22nd St Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,100	$1.37	22d	1	0.37mi
10456 W Ashburn Ln Crystal River, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$977	$1.23	15d	1	0.56mi
1950 NW 12th Ave Unit B Crystal River, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	22d	1	0.76mi
3371 N Bay Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,750	$1.74	22d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $100,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    status Pending 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

15. 2026-04-29
    price $100,000 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

16. 2026-04-24
    status Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

17. 2026-04-17
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

18. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

19. 2026-04-06
    listed $115,000 Active
20. 2026-03-12
    listed $115,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Situated in the desirable Crystal River area, this property is a blank canvas ready for its next chapter. The home experienced flooding and is being sold as-is, offering a significant opportunity for a custom renovation or a profitable 'fix-and-flip'. Priced competitively to reflect its current condition, this lot and shell provide the perfect foundation for a fix & flip or would make a great airbnb.

21. 2021-12-10
    soldstatus $179,900
22. 2020-07-27
    soldstatus $133,000
23. 2020-07-22
    soldstatus $133,000 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Newly remodeled 3/2/1 located in beautiful Crystal River ! Walking distance to the river, close to shopping, nestled in a quiet neighborhood. New flooring, carpets, countertops, A/C , Garage door, and wood trim.

24. 2020-04-03
    listed $134,900 211-char remark

    Show marketing remark (211 chars)

    Newly remodeled 3/2/1 located in beautiful Crystal River ! Walking distance to the river, close to shopping, nestled in a quiet neighborhood. New flooring, carpets, countertops, A/C , Garage door, and wood trim.

25. 1987-04-01
    soldstatus $52,000
26. 1982-04-01
    soldstatus $7,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,602
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $4,855
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $4,622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1182.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $100,000 RACC
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — RACC
• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — RACC
• 2026-04-06 Listed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $115,000 RACC
• 2021-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $179,900 Public Records
• 2020-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-22 Sold (MLS) $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-04-03 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1982-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,602 · -11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.