4708 Forest Hills Rd · Loves Park, IL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $804 – $1,492
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 101°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Schools +1.8/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$175,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed
Listing remarks MLS
Unique 2-family property on one lot featuring an all-brick front home plus a separate back home attached to the garage. The front residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious kitchen, dining room, office, and a bright living room with fireplace and hardwood flooring. The back home includes 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. Fully occupied with long-term tenants in place. Property is being sold as-is; cash or portfolio loans only.
Key facts
- 2 family property
- Attached to garage
- Separate back home
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info: Special service area: No; Possession subject to tenants' rights; One 3-bedroom unit currently rented for $1,600 (lease expires April 1, 2026); One 2-bedroom unit currently rented for $750 (lease expires April 1, 2026); Two units in building (total); Unit tenants pay electric and gas
Exterior
- Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
- Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Forced air heating
- Home design: Two- to four-unit property; Fee simple ownership; Over 100 years old; Built before 1978
- Construction: Brick and stucco exterior
- Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 297.7 x 70 x 293.7; Lot between 0.25 and 0.49 acre
Interior
- Kitchen: No appliances listed for units
- Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Building includes a 3-bedroom unit and a 2-bedroom unit
- Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms total (building)
- Interior features: 11 total rooms; Unfinished full basement; Some photos virtually staged
- Laundry & utility: Tenant(s) pay for electric and gas (for listed units)
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $468/mo.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
- Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.9% in Loves Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#255 in IL, #4,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, commute F.
- Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
- Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
- What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
- Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.68% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.71%
- Cash-on-cash
- 22.92%
- DSCR
- 2.02
- GRM
- 4.9
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5118 N 2nd St | 0.58mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | — | 6mo | $185,000 | — | 51 |
| 531 Pearl Ave | 0.64mi | 3/3.0 (-1) | — | 11mo | $720,000 | — | 44 |
| 2308 Melrose St | 0.71mi | 4/4.0 | — | 20mo | $234,000 | — | 34 |
| 430 Pearl Ave | 0.64mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | — | 22mo | $216,500 | — | 30 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 15.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.64×
- Total profit
- $31,416
- Equity at exit
- $26,093
- IRR
- 24.6%
- Equity multiple
- 3.14×
- Total profit
- $104,762
- Equity at exit
- $15,131
Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
- State Illinois
- 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 61111
- Active inventory
- 91
- Price-to-rent
- 9.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,948 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$918
- Tax from tax record
- −$402 /mo · $4,827/yr
- Insurance
- −$73
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$619
- Net cashflow
- $936
Break-even live
2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 2 | 1.5 | $2,948 |
| #1 | 2 | 1.5 | $1,474 |
| #2 | 2 | 1.5 | $1,474 |
| Total (2 units) | $2,948 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $43,750
- Closing costs
- $5,250
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 10 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4719 Illinois St Loves Park, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1188 | $1,600 | $1.35 | 13d | 1 | 0.16mi |
| 5304 Hollis Ave Loves Park, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | — | $1,400 | — | 21d | 1 | 0.72mi |
| 3121 Carefree Dr Rockford, IL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 3000 | $2,800 | $0.93 | 43d | 1 | 0.90mi |
| 4016 Eaton Dr Unit 1232695P Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1722 | $4,169 | $2.42 | 13d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 2215 Hecker Ave Unit 2215 Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 800 | $1,095 | $1.37 | 43d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 2308 Fremont St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1320 | $1,600 | $1.21 | 43d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 2208 Fremont St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | 938 | $1,400 | $1.49 | 13d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 1832 N Main St Rockford, IL | 2.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 872 | $1,199 | $1.37 | 13d | 1 | 1.31mi |
| 3117 Louise St Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | — | $1,450 | — | 13d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 3903 Burrmont Rd Rockford, IL | 3.0 | 1.0 | — | $1,700 | — | 21d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Listing history 11 events
-
2026-06-03days on market $175,000 Active 155 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $175,000 Active 154 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $175,000 Active 153 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $175,000 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
-
2026-02-20$175,000 Active 459-char remark
Show marketing remark (459 chars)
Unique 2-family property on one lot featuring an all-brick front home plus a separate back home attached to the garage. The front residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious kitchen, dining room, office, and a bright living room with fireplace and hardwood flooring. The back home includes 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. Fully occupied with long-term tenants in place. Property is being sold as-is; cash or portfolio loans only.
-
2025-12-30$175,000 Active
-
2025-03-03price $205,000
-
2025-02-22price $209,900
-
2025-02-13price $210,000
-
2025-02-07price $215,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $4,827 · $402/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,827 · $402/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $35,376
- − Mortgage interest
- −$9,803
- − Property taxes
- −$4,827
- − Insurance
- −$875
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,830
- − Management
- −$2,830
- − Depreciation
- −$5,091
- Taxable income
- $9,120
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,189
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,044/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Harlem UD 122
- NCES district ID
- 1718240
- Math proficiency
- 17% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 23% ▼ -7.00%
- Median HH income
- $51,228
- Composite
- 18.01/100
- National rank
- #8982
- State rank
- #418 of 620 in IL
Livability — Loves Park
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #255
- US rank
- #4724
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Loves Park, IL
- City population
- 22,838
- Population (ZIP)
- 22,838
Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 271,080 people
- By 2030
- 260,684 · -3.8%
- By 2040
- 238,405 · -12.1%
- By 2050
- 216,129 · -20.3%
- By 2075
- 172,882 · -36.2%
- By 2100
- 135,336 · -50.1%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (70%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 70% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Asian 4%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -125.48%
- Current HPI
- 222.3872
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.59%
- F500 in state
- 60
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Insurance | 4 | $201B |
|
||
| Consumer Goods | 4 | $87B |
|
||
| Industrial Machinery | 3 | $64B |
|
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| Healthcare | 2 | $55B |
|
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| Retail / Pharmacy | 1 | $148B |
|
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| Agriculture / Food | 1 | $86B |
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Price history
-18.6% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-20 Listed $175,000 NWIAR
- 2025-12-30 Listed $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-03-03 Price Changed $205,000 NWIAR
- 2025-02-22 Price Changed $209,900 NWIAR
- 2025-02-13 Price Changed $210,000 NWIAR
- 2025-02-07 Price Changed $215,000 NWIAR
Property tax history
+1.4%/yrLatest (2024): $4,827 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…