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B- Composite 68.0
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +30.0/30.0
  • 1% rule +10.0/10.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • Condition / age +2.5/5.0
  • Schools +1.8/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$175,000

4708 Forest Hills Rd · Loves Park, IL 61111
4 bd · 3.0 ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 155 Days on market
Built 1920 0.41 ac lot ↓ 19% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Unique 2-family property on one lot featuring an all-brick front home plus a separate back home attached to the garage. The front residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious kitchen, dining room, office, and a bright living room with fireplace and hardwood flooring. The back home includes 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. Fully occupied with long-term tenants in place. Property is being sold as-is; cash or portfolio loans only.

Key facts

  • 2 family property
  • Attached to garage
  • Separate back home

Tags

2 FAMILY PROPERTYALL BRICK FRONT HOMESEPARATE BACK HOMEATTACHED TO GARAGESPACIOUS KITCHENBRIGHT LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

  • Financial info: Special service area: No; Possession subject to tenants' rights; One 3-bedroom unit currently rented for $1,600 (lease expires April 1, 2026); One 2-bedroom unit currently rented for $750 (lease expires April 1, 2026); Two units in building (total); Unit tenants pay electric and gas

Exterior

  • Parking: Detached garage with 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
  • Utilities: Well water; Public sewer; Forced air heating
  • Home design: Two- to four-unit property; Fee simple ownership; Over 100 years old; Built before 1978
  • Construction: Brick and stucco exterior
  • Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 70 x 297.7 x 70 x 293.7; Lot between 0.25 and 0.49 acre

Interior

  • Kitchen: No appliances listed for units
  • Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total; Building includes a 3-bedroom unit and a 2-bedroom unit
  • Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms total (building)
  • Interior features: 11 total rooms; Unfinished full basement; Some photos virtually staged
  • Laundry & utility: Tenant(s) pay for electric and gas (for listed units)

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 3.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $175k.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $936 ($11k/yr) — positive. Per door: $468/mo.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
  • Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 4.9% in Loves Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 74/100 on livability (#255 in IL, #4,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, commute F.
  • Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
  • Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
  3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
  4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  5. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.68%
Cap rate
12.71%
Cash-on-cash
22.92%
DSCR
2.02
GRM
4.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
5118 N 2nd St 0.58mi 3/3.0 (-1) 6mo $185,000 51
531 Pearl Ave 0.64mi 3/3.0 (-1) 11mo $720,000 44
2308 Melrose St 0.71mi 4/4.0 20mo $234,000 34
430 Pearl Ave 0.64mi 3/2.0 (-1) 22mo $216,500 30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
15.9%
Equity multiple
1.64×
Total profit
$31,416
Equity at exit
$26,093
10-year hold
IRR
24.6%
Equity multiple
3.14×
Total profit
$104,762
Equity at exit
$15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
State Illinois
43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

ZIP-level market 61111

Active inventory
91
Price-to-rent
9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,948 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$918
Tax from tax record
$402 /mo · $4,827/yr
Insurance
$73
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$619
Net cashflow
$936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,763
Max offer price $175,000
Occupancy floor 63%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

UnitsBedsBathsEst. rent
Total (2 units) $2,948

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$43,750
Closing costs
$5,250
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Down + closing
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 10 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
4719 Illinois St Loves Park, IL 3.0 1.0 1188 $1,600 $1.35 13d 1 0.16mi
5304 Hollis Ave Loves Park, IL 3.0 1.0 $1,400 21d 1 0.72mi
3121 Carefree Dr Rockford, IL 4.0 2.5 3000 $2,800 $0.93 43d 1 0.90mi
4016 Eaton Dr Unit 1232695P Rockford, IL 3.0 3.0 1722 $4,169 $2.42 13d 1 1.01mi
2215 Hecker Ave Unit 2215 Rockford, IL 3.0 1.0 800 $1,095 $1.37 43d 1 1.14mi
2308 Fremont St Rockford, IL 3.0 1.0 1320 $1,600 $1.21 43d 1 1.24mi
2208 Fremont St Rockford, IL 3.0 1.0 938 $1,400 $1.49 13d 1 1.24mi
1832 N Main St Rockford, IL 2.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 872 $1,199 $1.37 13d 1 1.31mi
3117 Louise St Rockford, IL 3.0 1.0 $1,450 13d 1 1.32mi
3903 Burrmont Rd Rockford, IL 3.0 1.0 $1,700 21d 1 1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

  1. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 155 DOM
  2. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 154 DOM
  3. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 153 DOM
  4. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 152 DOM
  5. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
  6. 2026-02-20
    listed $175,000 Active 459-char remark
    Show marketing remark (459 chars)

    Unique 2-family property on one lot featuring an all-brick front home plus a separate back home attached to the garage. The front residence offers 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, a spacious kitchen, dining room, office, and a bright living room with fireplace and hardwood flooring. The back home includes 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, living room, and kitchen. Fully occupied with long-term tenants in place. Property is being sold as-is; cash or portfolio loans only.

  7. 2025-12-30
    listed $175,000 Active
  8. 2025-03-03
    price $205,000
  9. 2025-02-22
    price $209,900
  10. 2025-02-13
    price $210,000
  11. 2025-02-07
    price $215,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

Current annual tax
$4,827 · $402/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$4,827 · $402/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$35,376
− Mortgage interest
−$9,803
− Property taxes
−$4,827
− Insurance
−$875
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,830
− Management
−$2,830
− Depreciation
−$5,091
Taxable income
$9,120
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$2,189
After-tax cash flow
$9,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

District
Harlem UD 122
NCES district ID
1718240
Math proficiency
17% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
23% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$51,228
Composite
18.01/100
National rank
#8982
State rank
#418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Loves Park

Score
74/100
State rank
#255
US rank
#4724

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Loves Park, IL
City population
22,838
Population (ZIP)
22,838

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
271,080 people
By 2030
260,684 · -3.8%
By 2040
238,405 · -12.1%
By 2050
216,129 · -20.3%
By 2075
172,882 · -36.2%
By 2100
135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (70%)
Race & ethnicity
White 70% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada, China
Languages at home
89% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
2008→2024 swing
-12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
All cycles
2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

Civics

Market trends

HPI YoY
▼ -125.48%
Current HPI
222.3872
Rent YoY
Metro
State GDP YoY
▲ 1.59%
F500 in state
60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry F500 HQs Revenue

Price history

-18.6% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-02-20 Listed $175,000 NWIAR
  • 2025-12-30 Listed $175,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-03-03 Price Changed $205,000 NWIAR
  • 2025-02-22 Price Changed $209,900 NWIAR
  • 2025-02-13 Price Changed $210,000 NWIAR
  • 2025-02-07 Price Changed $215,000 NWIAR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $4,827 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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