31139 County Route 30 · Fort Drum, NY 13637

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1992 1.79 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located on 1.79 acres in a rural area, this single wide mobile home with a large addition is ready for a new owner. This home has 3 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, living room, open concept kitchen and dining room. A large two car detached garage for plenty of storage with several out buildings for any additional storage needs.

Key facts

• 1.79 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Irregular, rural lot (approx. 1.79 acres, 264 x 293)

Interior

• Kitchen: Country-style kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#996 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Indian River Central School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #502 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evans Mills Primary School (math 37% / reading 54%, grade D-, #1,268 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 375 students, 60% FRL); Indian River Middle School (math 26% / reading 50%, grade F, #442 of 729 statewide, top 61%, 672 students, 60% FRL); Indian River High School (math 98% / reading 90%, grade A+, #124 of 1,100 statewide, top 12%, 781 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 28% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Indian River Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $59,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.27%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $66,374
• Equity at exit: $49,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.84×
• Total profit: $165,100
• Equity at exit: $103,319

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13637

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 24
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $864/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $520

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $625	-5% $608	+0% $591	+5% $574	+10% $557
Rent	-10% $491	-5% $541	+0% $591	+5% $641	+10% $691
Rate	-1.0pp $621	-0.5pp $606	base $591	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $559

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $59,900 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $59,900 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $59,900 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $59,900 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $59,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $59,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-05-23
   listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $864 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $938 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$74/yr (+$6/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$864
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,217
• − Management: −$1,217
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $6,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,565
• After-tax cash flow: $5,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,599
• Composite: 35.25/100
• National rank: #4977
• State rank: #502 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Drum

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #996
• US rank: #19459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,673
• Population (ZIP): 5,280

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.04%
• Current HPI: 402.6102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $59,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $864 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.