33000 Cape Kiwanda Dr Unit 8, wk 36 · Pacific City, OR 97135

$55,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Timeshare · 396 Days on market

Built 2007 $48/sqft · 9% below area Est $60k · 9% under $406/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Annual hoa
• Ocean views

Tags

• OCEAN VIEWS
• TOP-NOTCH KITCHEN
• HEATED FLOORS
• SOAKING TUB
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• ANNUAL HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $996 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.0% vs local median 1.7% in Pacific City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#173 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: commute D+, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Nestucca Valley SD 101J (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #101 of 183 in OR (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nestucca K8 (math 10% / reading 44%, grade F, #288 of 412 statewide, top 73%, 349 students, 70% FRL); Nestucca High School (math 15% / reading 50%, grade F, #102 of 143 statewide, top 73%, 162 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Tillamook County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $781 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $401 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Tillamook County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 396 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 396 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 77.65%
• DSCR: 4.45
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,434
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -8.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 80.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.16×
• Total profit: $64,052
• Equity at exit: $18,005

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.62×
• Total profit: $148,093
• Equity at exit: $23,342

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97135

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$406
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $996

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,034	-5% $1,015	+0% $996	+5% $977	+10% $958
Rent	-10% $818	-5% $907	+0% $996	+5% $1,086	+10% $1,175
Rate	-1.0pp $1,024	-0.5pp $1,010	base $996	+0.5pp $982	+1.0pp $968

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $406 · $4,872/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 396 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,000 Active 395 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 393 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 392 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 391 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 390 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 388 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,000 Active 387 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 384 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 383 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 382 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 381 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,000 Active 378 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 377 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 376 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 375 DOM
17. 2025-12-15
    status Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

18. 2025-12-12
    price $55,000 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

19. 2025-02-03
    historical 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

20. 2024-11-27
    status Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

21. 2024-11-27
    price $59,900 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

22. 2024-06-26
    listed $65,000 Active 448-char remark

    Show marketing remark (448 chars)

    Live like royalty on the Oregon Coast! This deluxe abode is a worry-free paradise with stunning ocean views, a top-notch kitchen, cozy heated floors in the bathroom, a dreamy soaking tub, and more! With 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a primary bedroom with an ocean view, it's a slice of heaven. Forget about taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utilities - they're all covered in the annual HOA. Dive into all the perks of the Headlands Lodge and Spa!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − HOA: −$4,872
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $12,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,902
• After-tax cash flow: $9,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nestucca Valley SD 101J
• NCES district ID: 4108700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,958
• Composite: 37.3/100
• National rank: #8956
• State rank: #101 of 183 in OR

Livability — Pacific City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #173
• US rank: #10340

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pacific City, OR
• City population: 1,505
• Population (ZIP): 1,505

Population outlook (Tillamook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,318 people
• By 2030: 26,603 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 26,898 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 27,129 · +3.1%
• By 2075: 27,858 · +5.9%
• By 2100: 26,212 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 5% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tillamook

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 49.2% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: R+1.7 2016: R+5.9 2012: D+4.7 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.73%
• Current HPI: 197.7747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-15.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $55,000 OCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Delisted — OCMLS
• 2024-11-27 Relisted — OCMLS
• 2024-11-27 Price Changed $59,900 OCMLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $65,000 OCMLS