933 Lincolnwood Dr · Badger, AK 99705

$494,500

9 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,876 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2017 0.80 ac lot $264/sqft · 53% above area Est $362k · 37% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

For statistical purposes only

Key facts

• Desirable layouts
• Near schools
• Near shopping

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• STRONG INCOME POTENTIAL
• DESIRABLE LAYOUTS
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• PRACTICAL FLOOR PLANS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned General Use District - 1; Lot about 1.25 acres

Exterior

• Parking: 3 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Shared well water
• Home design: Residential income property; Triplex
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Garden; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Geothermal heating; Forced air heating; Central cooling with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $494k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive. Per door: $134/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $463k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $463k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.9% in Badger — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#49 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ticasuk Brown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #128 of 156 statewide, top 86%, 397 students, 41% FRL); North Pole Middle School (math 25% / reading 45%, grade F, #21 of 36 statewide, top 57%, 531 students, 39% FRL); North Pole High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #33 of 61 statewide, top 57%, 617 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 255 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,633/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 237% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($480k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $494k implies a 2367% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $463,300 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,563
• List price: $494,500
• Delta: 36.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-44,660
• Equity at exit: $73,732

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $36,340
• Equity at exit: $42,755

Cash invested: $138,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 26.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,633 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,593
• Tax from tax record: −$459 /mo · $5,506/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$973
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,124

Max offer price $494,500

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $682	-5% $542	+0% $402	+5% $262	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $219	+0% $402	+5% $585	+10% $768
Rate	-1.0pp $651	-0.5pp $528	base $402	+0.5pp $274	+1.0pp $143

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	1	1	$4,632
Total (3 units)			$4,633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,625
• Closing costs: $14,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $494,500 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $494,500 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,500 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   price $494,500 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,900 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $499,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $499,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $499,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $499,900 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $499,900 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,900 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,900 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $499,900 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $499,900 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $499,900 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-05-08
    listed $499,900 Active 660-char remark
20. 2023-04-10
    soldstatus 29-char remark

    Show marketing remark (29 chars)

    For statistical purposes only

21. 2022-07-05
    listed $425,000 29-char remark

    Show marketing remark (29 chars)

    For statistical purposes only

22. 2022-06-01
    soldstatus
23. 2006-12-15
    soldstatus $20,044

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,506 · $459/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,695 · $475/mo
• Expected delta: +$189/yr (+$16/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,700
• − Property taxes: −$5,506
• − Insurance: −$2,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,448
• − Management: −$4,448
• − Depreciation: −$14,385
• Taxable loss: −$3,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $5,631/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Badger

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #15681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Badger, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 22,281
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2367.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $494,500 GFBR
• 2026-05-08 Listed $499,900 GFBR
• 2023-04-10 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2022-07-05 Listed $425,000 GFBR
• 2022-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $20,044 Public Records

Property tax history

+65.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,506 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.