430 Hcr 1231 · Whitney, TX 76692

$94,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 227 Days on market

Built 2003 0.77 ac lot $83/sqft · 49% below area Est $187k · 49% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Small balcony
• Private roomy yard

Tags

• SMALL BALCONY
• PRIVATE ROOMY YARD
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• SERENE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $94k).
• Recommended offer: $83k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.0% in Whitney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#282 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Whitney ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #378 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 638 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Hill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hill County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($83k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.88%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $186,926
• List price: $94,500
• Delta: -49.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $5,606
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $31,894
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76692

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 638
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,582/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $844

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,500 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,500 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,500 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,500 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,500 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $94,500 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,500 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,500 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,500 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,500 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $94,500 Active 212 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 211 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 210 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    status Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

17. 2026-04-30
    historical 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

18. 2026-04-17
    price $110,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

19. 2026-04-10
    price $115,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

20. 2026-02-26
    price $126,000 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

21. 2025-10-29
    listed $128,000 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Charming cottage just off a quiet country road and minutes from Lake Whitney — the perfect weekend getaway or hunting cabin. This adorable 1-bedroom, 2-bath home offers cozy comfort and country character. The upstairs bedroom opens to a small balcony, ideal for morning coffee and peaceful views. Outside, you’ll find a private, roomy yard with plenty of space to start a garden, build a fire pit or host a Texas-style BBQ. Comfortable living spaces, easy access to outdoor recreation, and a serene setting make this an irresistible retreat. Great opportunity for a weekend home, rental, or full-time simple-living lifestyle.

22. 2025-10-05
    price $128,000
23. 2025-09-18
    price $138,500
24. 2025-09-18
    status Active
25. 2025-08-05
    historical Active Option Contract
26. 2025-07-29
    price $139,500
27. 2025-07-13
    listed $146,500 Active
28. 1999-06-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,729 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$147/yr (+$12/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$1,582
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,209
• − Management: −$1,209
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $2,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $3,313/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845720
• Math proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,861
• Composite: 34.97/100
• National rank: #5060
• State rank: #378 of 826 in TX

Livability — Whitney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #6568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,662

Population outlook (Hill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,013 people
• By 2030: 33,289 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 31,688 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 30,100 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 26,818 · -21.2%
• By 2100: 22,918 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Hill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.4) · D 17.5% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.4pp · 2024: -64.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+53.0 2008: R+41.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.72%
• Current HPI: 252.9827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $126,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $128,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $128,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $138,500 NTREIS
• 2025-09-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-08-05 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $139,500 NTREIS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $146,500 NTREIS
• 1999-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,582 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.