2411 River Rd #2444 · Wisconsin Dells, WI 53965

$189,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Condo · 1142 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition $106/sqft · 21% below area Est $241k · 21% under $827/mo HOA · 46% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.7/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This condo is located on the fourth floor overlooking the Chula Vista Resort. Condo features 2 fireplaces, 9' ceilings granite counter tops, stainless steel appliances, and a whirlpool tub! The association owns three outdoor swimming pools including a wave pool that overlooks the Upper Dells of the Wisconsin River! This condo would make a wonderful second home, primary residence or you could rent it out to offset the cost of ownership. On property you will find that Chula Vista has so much to offer! There are many restaurants including the Award Winning Kaminski Chop House, Spa Del Sol, gift shops and an 18 hole Golf Course. A must see, this one has it all!

Key facts

• $827 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 2007

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $190k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-728 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $84k (55.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (55.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.7% vs local median 1.3% in Wisconsin Dells — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#100 in WI, #2,661 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Wisconsin Dells School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 342 in WI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 1,041 statewide, top 40%, 608 students, 57% FRL); Wisconsin Dells Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #112 of 383 statewide, top 30%, 387 students, 54% FRL); Wisconsin Dells High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #349 of 483 statewide, top 75%, 603 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1142 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 46% of rent.

Recommended offer $84,496 (55.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 56% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.44%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,220
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -21.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 River Rd #2243	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	7mo	$190,000	$107	94
2411 River Rd #2459	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	12mo	$192,500	$108	90
2411 River Rd #2559	0.00mi	3/3.0	1,784 (0%)	14mo	$195,000	$109	88
2411 River Rd #2232	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	12mo	$203,000	$100	66
2411 River Rd #2437	0.19mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	2mo	$200,000	$98	65
2411 River Rd #2226	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	14mo	$204,000	$100	64
2411 River Rd #2210	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+14%)	14mo	$185,000	$91	64
2411 River Rd #2515	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	7mo	$168,000	$112	60
2411 River Rd #2136	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	8mo	$130,000	$87	59
2411 River Rd #2318	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	13mo	$158,500	$106	55
2411 River Rd #2628	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	15mo	$147,000	$98	53
2411 River Rd #2233	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-16%)	16mo	$170,000	$113	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-76,630
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -87.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.34×
• Total profit: $-124,294
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $224,900 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 375 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +7.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 53965

• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$827
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-728

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $84,496

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-597	-5% $-663	+0% $-728	+5% $-794	+10% $-860
Rent	-10% $-870	-5% $-799	+0% $-728	+5% $-658	+10% $-587
Rate	-1.0pp $-633	-0.5pp $-680	base $-728	+0.5pp $-778	+1.0pp $-828

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $827/mo · $9,924/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 1142 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 1141 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $189,900 Active 1140 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $189,900 Active 1139 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $189,900 Active 1138 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $189,900 Active 1136 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $189,900 Active 1135 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $189,900 Active 1134 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $189,900 Active 1133 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 1132 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 1131 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 1130 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $189,900 Active 1129 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $189,900 Active 1128 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $189,900 Active 1127 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $189,900 Active 1126 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $189,900 Active 1125 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 1124 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $189,900 Active 1123 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $189,900 Active 1122 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 1121 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 1120 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $189,900 Active 1119 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $189,900 Active 1118 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $189,900 Active 1117 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $189,900 Active 1116 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $189,900 Active 1115 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $189,900 Active 1114 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $189,900 Active 1113 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 1112 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 1111 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 1110 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $189,900 Active 1109 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 1108 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 1107 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 1106 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 1105 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 1104 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 1103 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $189,900 Active 1102 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $189,900 Active 1101 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $189,900 Active 1100 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $189,900 Active 1099 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $189,900 Active 1098 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $189,900 Active 1097 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $189,900 Active 1096 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $189,900 Active 1094 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $189,900 Active 1093 DOM
49. 2026-09-18
    days on market $189,900 Active 1091 DOM
50. 2026-09-17
    days on market $189,900 Active 1090 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − HOA: −$9,924
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$11,881
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,851
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,920–$26,760 screening

This well-maintained condo is in good condition with good curb appeal and potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases rental value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spring Hill Elementary F WI #372/1,041 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Wisconsin Dells Middle School D- WI #112/383 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Wisconsin Dells High F WI #349/483 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wisconsin Dells School District
• NCES district ID: 5517040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,233
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4810
• State rank: #135 of 342 in WI

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Wisconsin Dells

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #2661

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wisconsin Dells, WI
• County: Adams County · 18,560 people
• City population: 10,818
• Metro: Madison, WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,818
• Household income: $66,667
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,560 people
• By 2030: 17,523 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 14,888 · -19.8%
• By 2050: 12,359 · -33.4%
• By 2075: 8,662 · -53.3%
• By 2100: 6,000 · -67.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 34.6% · R 60.4% · Other 5.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.2pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+8.7 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.85%
• Current HPI: 234.2781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madison, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $189,900 SCWMLS
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $201,500 SCWMLS
• 2025-03-29 Relisted — SCWMLS
• 2025-03-29 Listing Removed — SCWMLS
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $205,500 SCWMLS
• 2023-09-20 Listed $209,900 SCWMLS