111 Cross Memorial Ave · Morganton, NC 28655

$215,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 989 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1952 10,454 sqft lot Est $176k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One floor living at it's best. This is a traditional Three Bedroom One Bath Brick home in a very convenient and desirable location. From the front porch step into a large living room. To the right is the primary bedroom. To the left is a large eat in kitchen. Two bedrooms and a bathroom finish out the main floor. Home is located on a nice lot just minutes from Liberty Middle, Patton High Schools and a short distance to I-40 and many county and state jobs. $6,000 roof allowance to be provided at closing.

Key facts

• Outbuilding
• Partial basement
• Brick cottage

Tags

• BRICK COTTAGE
• COVERED SIDE PORCH
• OUTBUILDING
• PARTIAL BASEMENT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R-3
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; 3 open parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system installed; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Site-built construction; One level
• Construction: Brick (full) and vinyl exterior; Basement (partial, unfinished, exterior entry, storage); Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered front and side porches; Outbuilding on the property; Sloped lot; Concrete/paved driveway and road; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Exhaust hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Ceiling fan(s) in multiple rooms; Storage in one room
• Flooring: Wood; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace; Forced air; Oil heating; Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Storm door(s); 7 total rooms; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-68 ($-817/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Morganton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#149 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, commute F.
• Burke County Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #89 of 178 in NC (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mull Elementary (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #574 of 1,410 statewide, top 43%, 258 students, 69% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 457 students, 58% FRL); Robert L. Patton High School (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 752 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 436 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Burke County in 2024 (94 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burke County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,996 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $176,042
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 Enola Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (+6%)	8mo	$187,000	$178	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-39,282
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-40,219
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28655

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $716/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $202,970

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $-7	+0% $-68	+5% $-129	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-129	+0% $-68	+5% $-8	+10% $53
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-13	base $-68	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   listed $215,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $716 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,763 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,047/yr (+$87/mo · 146.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$716
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,469
• − Management: −$1,469
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,667
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,342
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4400
• State rank: #89 of 178 in NC

Livability — Morganton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #8307

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burke County · 55,100 people
• City population: 55,100
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,100
• Household income: $57,713
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1145.0

Population outlook (Burke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,552 people
• By 2030: 84,123 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 78,165 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,099 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 56,264 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 44,742 · -48.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.2) · D 29.0% · R 70.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -41.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.2 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.07%
• Current HPI: 362.0732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+19.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $215,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-31 Sold (MLS) $172,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-23 Contingent — CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-22 Listed $179,900 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $716 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.