11964 Canal St · Willis, TX 77318

$154,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,355 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 2025 2,099 sqft lot $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. LVP flooring downstairs. Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven / cooktop, dishwasher, and microwave. 2 inch blinds throughout. NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

Key facts

• 10 ceilings
• Island kitchen
• Double pane windows

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• TONS OF STORAGE
• 10 CEILINGS
• LVP FLOORING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• LED RECESSED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 21 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,576 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.86%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,096
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,899
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	43d	1	0.12mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	2d	1	0.12mi
11555 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.28mi
11559 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,490	$1.49	43d	1	0.29mi
11561 Persimmon St Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,530	$1.53	43d	1	0.29mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	3d	1	0.78mi
14210 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,850	$1.15	3d	1	0.81mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	0.82mi
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-03-26
    status Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. LVP flooring downstairs. Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven / cooktop, dishwasher, and microwave. 2 inch blinds throughout. NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

15. 2026-03-17
    status Pending 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. LVP flooring downstairs. Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven / cooktop, dishwasher, and microwave. 2 inch blinds throughout. NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

16. 2026-03-01
    listed $162,500 Active 744-char remark

    Show marketing remark (744 chars)

    Look at this wide-open concept! This incredible home features 3 bedrooms, 2-1/2 baths, an island kitchen, tons of storage throughout. 10' ceilings in kitchen/living/dining. LVP flooring downstairs. Stainless Steel appliance package including easy clean top range with electric oven / cooktop, dishwasher, and microwave. 2 inch blinds throughout. NEW CONSTRUCTION with incredible energy saving features: double pane windows, LED recessed lighting throughout, R-38 Insulation & so much more! In the heart of Conroe, you will have easy access to shopping, entertainment, restaurants, The Woodlands & Lake Conroe!! Walnut Cove boasts recreational facilities with newly installed grills & picnic tables, community pool & boat launch.

17. 2026-02-28
    historical
18. 2026-01-27
    price $162,500
19. 2025-11-26
    price $169,900
20. 2025-11-15
    listed $174,000 Active
21. 2025-10-07
    historical
22. 2025-10-01
    listed $179,900 Active
23. 2025-10-01
    historical
24. 2025-08-22
    listed $182,900 Active
25. 2025-08-22
    historical
26. 2025-06-06
    listed $184,900 Active
27. 2025-06-06
    historical
28. 2025-04-23
    listed $189,900 Active
29. 2025-04-23
    historical
30. 2025-03-06
    listed $197,900 Active
31. 2025-03-05
    historical
32. 2025-01-16
    listed $197,900 Active
33. 2025-01-16
    historical
34. 2024-12-13
    listed $199,900 Active
35. 2024-12-13
    historical
36. 2024-10-25
    listed $199,900 Active
37. 2024-10-25
    historical
38. 2024-08-29
    listed $199,900 Active
39. 2024-07-04
    historical
40. 2024-05-23
    listed $199,900 Active
41. 2024-03-12
    price $209,900
42. 2024-03-12
    historical
43. 2024-02-24
    price $226,500
44. 2024-01-22
    listed $229,900 Active
45. 2024-01-22
    historical
46. 2024-01-11
    listed $229,900 Active
47. 2023-06-30
    historical
48. 2023-05-18
    listed $37,000 Active
49. 2023-05-17
    historical
50. 2023-04-14
    listed $39,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $1,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$246
• After-tax cash flow: $3,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

47 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $162,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $162,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $169,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed $174,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $182,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-06 Listed $197,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $197,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-23 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-12 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $226,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-22 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2024-01-11 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-05-18 Listed $37,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-04-14 Listed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-03-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-11 Listed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-30 Listed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-17 Listed $39,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-26 Listed $39,000 HARMLS