3802 Pennington Ave · Baltimore, MD 21226

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Townhouse public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1926

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Adorable 3BR/1BA Townhome located on a tree-lined street in Curtis Bay. Make your way through the Adorable 3BR/1BA renovated townhome located on a tree-lined street in Brooklyn. Make your way through the gated front yard, step up to the covered front porch, and open the door into your forever home. Step inside this newly renovated, move-in-ready home featuring a warm color palette, tile and easy care flooring, and plenty of natural light. The main floor features a large living room with an arched opening into the large eat-in kitchen. The kitchen offers abundant cabinets, including a pantry cabinet, new appliances, a stainless sink under a double window, and plenty of room for a dining tab

Key facts

• Built 1926
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total below-grade area approximately 480; Above-grade finished area approximately 960; Lot dimensions approximately 16 x 85 (estimated)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Three levels in unit; Fee simple ownership; Excellent condition; Effective remodel or major renovation in 2025
• Construction: Mixed construction materials; Block foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built information from assessor
• Exterior features: Front yard; Landscaping; Rear yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Icemaker; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Full, unfinished basement (other/unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $454 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 159% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $51k; list at $140k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.89%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $79,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1347 Cambria St	0.16mi	3/2.5	986 (+3%)	3mo	$177,000	$180	80
1150 Monroe Cir	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,024 (+7%)	6mo	$55,000	$54	75
3601 9th St	0.54mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	7mo	$35,000	$36	69
4523 Pennington Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (+5%)	4mo	$105,000	$104	60
4101 Morrison Ct	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-13%)	6mo	$32,500	$39	60
3731 10th St	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (+8%)	3mo	$125,000	$120	59
4221 Morrison Ct	0.25mi	2/1.5 (-1)	832 (-13%)	1mo	$25,000	$30	58
4206 Grace Ct	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	832 (-13%)	6mo	$60,500	$73	57
3948 Brooklyn Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,080 (+12%)	0mo	$90,000	$83	43
3712 8th St	0.64mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,088 (+13%)	0mo	$60,000	$55	41
1607 Cereal St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	840 (-12%)	7mo	$70,000	$83	40
4009 8th St	0.65mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,088 (+13%)	2mo	$223,000	$205	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.75% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $84,292
• Equity at exit: $103,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $223,057
• Equity at exit: $204,045

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21226

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,748 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,626/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,174

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $533	-5% $493	+0% $454	+5% $414	+10% $374
Rent	-10% $315	-5% $385	+0% $454	+5% $523	+10% $592
Rate	-1.0pp $524	-0.5pp $489	base $454	+0.5pp $417	+1.0pp $380

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1353 Cambria St Brooklyn, MD	3.0	2.0	986	$1,600	$1.62	19d	1	0.14mi
1305 E Patapsco Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	930	$1,650	$1.77	5d	1	0.21mi
4216 Prudence St Curtis Bay, MD	4.0	3.0	1116	$2,100	$1.88	45d	1	0.32mi
1049 E Patapsco Ave Unit a Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	748	$1,257	$1.68	45d	1	0.34mi
3826 10th St Unit Entire House Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,400	$2.16	25d	1	0.45mi
3840 8th St Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,606	$1.48	5d	1	0.67mi
3528 6th St Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.5	1060	$1,500	$1.42	19d	1	0.83mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	5d	1	0.84mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	21d	1	0.84mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	25d	1	0.84mi
4206 Audrey Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	3.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	25d	1	0.88mi
4206 Audrey Ave Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,275	$1.15	45d	1	0.88mi
5215 Wasena Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,650	$1.60	45d	1	0.89mi
5227 Patrick Henry Dr Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	736	$1,326	$1.80	23d	1	0.99mi
3513 Horton Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,600	$1.57	19d	1	1.03mi
4400 4th St Unit BASEMENT Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,350	$1.46	45d	1	1.07mi
4207 3rd St Unit 3 Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	6d	1	1.13mi
1 Ballman Ct Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Coming Soon 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    historical $139,900
17. 2021-07-20
    soldstatus $51,000
18. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus $51,000 Closed
19. 2021-03-06
    status Pending
20. 2021-03-03
    historical
21. 2021-02-20
    price $51,000
22. 2021-02-01
    price $52,000
23. 2021-01-10
    listed $54,000 Active
24. 2017-02-13
    historical Withdrawn
25. 2017-02-13
    historical
26. 2017-02-03
    price
27. 2017-01-27
    status Active
28. 2017-01-25
    status Contract
29. 2017-01-08
    listed Active
30. 2017-01-08
    listed $55,000
31. 2002-08-23
    soldstatus $40,000
32. 2002-07-18
    soldstatus $40,000
33. 2002-07-10
    historical
34. 2002-06-04
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,626 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,626
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,678
• − Management: −$1,678
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $3,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$813
• After-tax cash flow: $4,630/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• City population: 588,727
• Population (ZIP): 6,593

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 18% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.75%
• Current HPI: 318.79
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+233.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Coming Soon $139,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $51,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-09 Sold (MLS) $51,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-06 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-20 Price Changed $51,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-02-01 Price Changed $52,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-10 Listed $54,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-02-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-02-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-02-03 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2017-01-27 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-01-25 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-01-08 Listed — MRIS
• 2017-01-08 Listed $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2002-07-18 Sold (MLS) $40,000 MRIS
• 2002-07-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2002-06-04 Listed $42,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,626 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.