LEXINGTON Plan · Hockley, TX 77447

$264,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 183 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The open-concept design of the two-story Lexington floor plan shows the huge island kitchen connected to the great room and dining room. The open-feel of the home is popular with today's sophisticated buyer, who is looking for a design that fosters togetherness in the home and makes entertaining fun. The use of space in the Lexington is well thought out, with the primary suite privately situated on the first floor, while the secondary bedrooms are on the second floor.

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Primary suite
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $328,730.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,766 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.06%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $328,730
• List price: $264,990
• Delta: -19.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Rising Cedar Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,858 (+4%)	1mo	$279,990	$151	76
505 Wax Myrtle Way	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,012 (+13%)	1mo	$329,900	$164	63
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,042 (+14%)	6mo	$303,990	$149	62
544 Wax Myrtle Way	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-12%)	0mo	$290,990	$185	60
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+14%)	2mo	$314,990	$154	60
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+14%)	4mo	$314,990	$154	58
256 Elm Spring Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-14%)	1mo	$252,990	$164	58
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,539 (-14%)	4mo	$257,990	$168	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-89,524
• Equity at exit: $49,015

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.54×
• Total profit: $-141,822
• Equity at exit: $28,423

Cash invested: $92,044 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 43 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 25.8 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $285,900 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 158 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +13.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2097
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,931/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-465

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,876

Max offer price $261,512

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-237	-5% $-351	+0% $-465	+5% $-578	+10% $-692
Rent	-10% $-645	-5% $-555	+0% $-465	+5% $-374	+10% $-284
Rate	-1.0pp $-299	-0.5pp $-381	base $-465	+0.5pp $-550	+1.0pp $-636

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,183
• Closing costs: $9,862
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $264,990 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $264,990 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $264,990 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $264,990 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $264,990 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $264,990 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $264,990 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $264,990 Active 170 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $264,990 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 167 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $264,990 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $264,990 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $264,990 Active 159 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $264,990 Active 158 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 157 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 156 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $264,990 Active 155 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $264,990 Active 154 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 153 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 151 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 150 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 149 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $264,990 Active 148 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 147 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 146 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 145 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 144 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $264,990 Active 143 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 142 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $264,990 Active 141 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $264,990 Active 140 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $264,990 Active 138 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 132 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $264,990 Active 131 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 130 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $264,990 Active 129 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 123 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,990 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 118 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 117 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 116 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 115 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,452
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,414
• − Property taxes: −$4,931
• − Insurance: −$1,644
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$9,563
• Taxable loss: −$11,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,758
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story Lexington home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and a thorough gutter inspection.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Inspect and clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Evelyn Turlington El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 60,772 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Listed $279,990 Zillow