4958 Flintshire Ct · McKee City, NJ 08330

$295,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · Townhouse public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $287k · at est. $155/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

7-level 3 story "Washington" model. Fresh paint, shows well.

Key facts

• Basketball court
• Concrete patio
• $155 HOA

Tags

• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT
• WELL-APPOINTED CLUBHOUSE
• BASKETBALL COURT
• CONCRETE PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee: $155

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: For sale
• Exterior features: Brick face exterior; Lot dimensions approximately 20 x 100; Lot under 1 acre; Not waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 8
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Electric heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($663/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.9% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L. Hess Educational Complex (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #990 of 1,303 statewide, top 76%, 1,363 students, 53% FRL); William Davies Middle School (math 10% / reading 41%, grade F, #359 of 431 statewide, top 84%, 930 students, 51% FRL); Oakcrest High School (math 9% / reading 36%, grade F, #342 of 399 statewide, top 86%, 914 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 37% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 244 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $295k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,836 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.80%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,996
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4901 Bala Ct	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,828 (0%)	12mo	$275,000	$150	78
4815 Anglesey Ct Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,828 (0%)	8mo	$230,000	$126	74
4930 Denbigh Ct	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,672 (-8%)	7mo	$205,000	$123	73
4968 Flintshire Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,736 (-5%)	18mo	$235,000	$135	71
5015 Merion Ct	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,712 (-6%)	15mo	$295,000	$172	68
4905 Bala Ct	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,632 (-11%)	8mo	$270,000	$165	64
5098 Radnor Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,712 (-6%)	12mo	$220,000	$129	63
4981 Cardiff Ct	0.08mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,720 (-6%)	19mo	$260,500	$151	62
5097 Wells Ct	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,736 (-5%)	19mo	$285,000	$164	60
1533 Washington Ct #1533	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (-2%)	12mo	$282,500	$157	54
1533 Washington Ct	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,700 (-7%)	12mo	$282,500	$166	45
1566 Washington Ct #1566	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,620 (-11%)	11mo	$288,400	$178	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $164,286
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $481,237
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,777/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $222	-5% $139	+0% $55	+5% $-28	+10% $-112
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-55	+0% $55	+5% $165	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $130	base $55	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2604 Dogwood Ct Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,580	$1.58	15d	1	1.08mi
2604 Dogwood Ct #43 Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,580	$1.58	15d	1	1.08mi
2609 Dogwood Ct #52 Mays Landing, NJ	3.0	1.5	1628	$2,200	$1.35	15d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $295,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $275,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $275,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,777 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,561 · $463/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,784/yr (+$149/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$3,777
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$4,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,011
• After-tax cash flow: $1,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+189.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $275,000 SJSRMLS
• 2018-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $90,100 Public Records
• 2002-02-26 Sold (MLS) $90,100 SJSRMLS
• 2002-01-31 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2002-01-28 Listed $95,000 SJSRMLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,777 · +21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.