3574 Ridge Rd · Williamson, NY 14589

$133,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,678 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1925 10,454 sqft lot $80/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 BEDROOM COLONIAL WITH 1.5 BATHROOMS

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 123 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#141 in NY, #2,196 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Williamson Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #363 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $110k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $117,832 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,218
• List price: $133,900
• Delta: -52.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3601 Sunset Ln	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+1%)	10mo	$225,000	$133	78
3856 Ridge Rd	0.68mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,658 (-1%)	6mo	$275,000	$166	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-11,885
• Equity at exit: $19,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,660
• Equity at exit: $11,577

Cash invested: $37,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14589

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$702
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,167/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $133,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $190	+0% $152	+5% $114	+10% $76
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $89	+0% $152	+5% $215	+10% $278
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $186	base $152	+0.5pp $117	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,475
• Closing costs: $4,017
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $133,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $133,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $133,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $133,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $133,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $133,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $133,900 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $133,900 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $133,900 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $134,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $134,900 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    3 BEDROOM COLONIAL WITH 1.5 BATHROOMS

16. 2026-04-11
    price $139,900 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    3 BEDROOM COLONIAL WITH 1.5 BATHROOMS

17. 2026-03-30
    price $149,900 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    3 BEDROOM COLONIAL WITH 1.5 BATHROOMS

18. 2026-02-14
    listed $159,900 Active 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    3 BEDROOM COLONIAL WITH 1.5 BATHROOMS

19. 2023-08-16
    soldstatus $110,000
20. 2005-06-30
    soldstatus $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,167 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,167 · $347/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,500
• − Property taxes: −$4,167
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$3,895
• Taxable loss: −$191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $1,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631440
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,080
• Composite: 43.79/100
• National rank: #2937
• State rank: #363 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #2196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,904

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.43%
• Current HPI: 234.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+62.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $134,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2023-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,167 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.