12828 Shining Blue Nile Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$316,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,817 sqft · SingleFamily · 99 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $320k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This convenient single-story plan opens to an inviting dining room with shared access to the kitchen and family room, ideal for seamless modern living. Tucked behind the kitchen, three secondary bedrooms enjoy their own wing of the home, while the expansive owner's suite is ideally situated in the back corner, a peaceful retreat.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 98 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price provided (details omitted from features list)
• HOA & community: No HOA or community details provided

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: No utilities details provided
• Home design: Single-family new construction (Harrisburg plan); Spec home
• Construction: Built 2026 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Address: 12828 Shining Blue Nile Ln, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Kitchen: No kitchen appliance details provided
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: No flooring details provided
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details provided
• Interior features: Spec new construction (Harrisburg plan); Living area approximately 1817
• Laundry & utility: No laundry or utility details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $288k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $287,924 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.75%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12115 Smoky Emerald Ter	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,817 (0%)	3mo	$310,000	$171	83
13127 Empress Jewel Trl	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,870 (+3%)	10mo	$337,100	$180	79
12957 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,817 (0%)	10mo	$319,900	$176	79
13122 Empress Jewel Trl	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,870 (+3%)	10mo	$325,560	$174	77
13219 Commons Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+2%)	6mo	$341,619	$185	69
13508 Cornerstone Way	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,853 (+2%)	6mo	$365,999	$198	68
13815 Sawmill St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+2%)	1mo	$319,704	$173	67
13065 Empress Jewel Trl	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,870 (+3%)	7mo	$329,400	$176	66
13156 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+6%)	6mo	$270,000	$140	64
13407 Commons Ave	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,792 (-1%)	0mo	$387,529	$216	61
13608 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,935 (+6%)	9mo	$325,000	$168	61
12442 Radiant Crystal Rose	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-14%)	9mo	$304,250	$196	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-42,707
• Equity at exit: $47,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-49,584
• Equity at exit: $27,356

Cash invested: $88,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,659
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,746/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,768

Max offer price $316,400

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,100
• Closing costs: $9,492
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	16d	1	0.22mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	3d	1	0.32mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	3d	1	0.41mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	11d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $316,400 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $316,400 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $316,400 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $316,400 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $315,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $315,400 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $314,400 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $314,400 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $313,650 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $313,650 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,723
• − Property taxes: −$4,746
• − Insurance: −$1,582
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,994
• − Management: −$2,994
• − Depreciation: −$9,204
• Taxable loss: −$1,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $3,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B