5441 W Lazy Heart St · Tucson Estates, AZ 85713

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 270 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1976 4,879 sqft lot $463/sqft · 388% above area Est $154k · 19% under $208/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Tucson Estates, a active adult community offering scenic desert living golf, exercise facilities, pools, spa, pickleball, tennis courts and so much more. . This 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home features a desirable layout with no rear neighbors, providing added privacy and peaceful surroundings. Enjoy beautiful mountain views right from your living room and relax on the patio. A perfect opportunity to enjoy low-maintenance living in a vibrant retirement community.

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Pickleball
• Exercise facilities

Tags

• SCENIC DESERT LIVING
• EXERCISE FACILITIES
• PICKLEBALL
• TENNIS COURTS
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions irregular; Lot size: 4,879 square feet; Zoning: Pima County - TH; Road responsibility: HOA; Directions available to property
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee: $208; Community pool; Community spa; Golf; Tennis courts; Fitness center; Recreation center; Athletic facilities; Pickleball

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Security: Wrought iron security door
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal siding; Rolled/Hot Mop roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Subdivided lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Wall unit(s); Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Wrought iron security door; Accessible approach with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-185 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Laura N. Banks Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #888 of 1,109 statewide, top 81%, 308 students, 70% FRL); Valencia Middle School (math 3% / reading 11%, grade F, #210 of 218 statewide, top 97%, 722 students, 79% FRL); Cholla High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,760 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $125k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,362 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.33%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,179
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -18.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5474 W Lazy Heart St	0.06mi	1/1.0 (-1)	267 (-1%)	23mo	$50,000	$187	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-34,792
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-56,176
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85713

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,227/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$208
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $92,362

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $208 · $2,496/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 475-char remark
16. 2026-04-28
    historical Active Contingent 475-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $125,000 Active 475-char remark
18. 2017-09-21
    soldstatus $66,000
19. 2006-08-08
    soldstatus $76,000
20. 2001-06-04
    historical
21. 2000-12-04
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,227 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,227 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,654
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,227
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,012
• − Management: −$1,012
• − HOA: −$2,496
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$4,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 46,439
• Household income: $53,152
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1517.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 30% White 21% Native American 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 67%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.07%
• Current HPI: 329.8338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+78.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-24 Listed $125,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-04 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2000-12-04 Listed $69,900 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,227 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.