10520 Spruce Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 93285

$152,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1960 8,276 sqft lot $183/sqft · 18% below area Est $185k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and see the Purrfect Cabin Getaway! And at a price that won't make your wallet get away! Located in a nice spot on Spruce Dr in Alta Sierra this Little Red Cabin in the woods is a dream. Featuring three Bedrooms, one downstairs and two up in the loft, there is lots of usability and utility in every Sq Foot of this Cabin. A BIG Living room with Fireplace and Kitchenette and Full Bath occupy downstairs, and every window in this home has lovely forest views along with the beautiful Deck that greets you as you enter. Furnishings and appliances included and you are minutes from Lake Isabella and Kernville and Glenville. Just literally postcard cute this place, and shaded with tall Cedars an

Key facts

• Lovely forest views
• Beautiful deck
• Big living room

Tags

• BIG LIVING ROOM
• LOVELY FOREST VIEWS
• BEAUTIFUL DECK
• SEASONAL BABBLING BROOK
• INCLUDED LOT NEXT DOOR
• WATER RIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: R-1 zoning

Exterior

• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence (cabin-style); One story
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Property has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wood stove heating; Wood heating source; Ceiling fan(s); No central air
• Interior features: Window coverings; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $101k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $101k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,169 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.75%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,964
• List price: $152,500
• Delta: -16.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10515 Spruce Dr	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	770 (-8%)	6mo	$190,000	$247	76
10624 Spruce Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	768 (-8%)	10mo	$105,000	$137	74
10920 Elm Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	851 (+2%)	6mo	$105,000	$123	74
10933 Laurel Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0	855 (+3%)	12mo	$183,000	$214	68
10528 Holly Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0	744 (-11%)	13mo	$149,000	$200	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $70,000
• Equity at exit: $137,384

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $216,362
• Equity at exit: $296,274

Cash invested: $42,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93285

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$800
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,689/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $-205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $116,331

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-162	+0% $-205	+5% $-248	+10% $-291
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-245	+0% $-205	+5% $-165	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-128	-0.5pp $-166	base $-205	+0.5pp $-244	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,125
• Closing costs: $4,575
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $152,500 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $152,500 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $152,500 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $152,500 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $152,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $152,500 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $152,500 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $152,500 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $152,500 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $152,500 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,500 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $152,500 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,500 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,500 Active 7 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,500 Active 6 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,500 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    historical
18. 2026-02-10
    listed $155,000 Active
19. 2026-02-10
    listed $155,000 Active
20. 2026-02-06
    historical
21. 2025-11-14
    price $155,000
22. 2025-11-14
    price $155,000
23. 2025-09-20
    price $165,000
24. 2025-09-20
    price $165,000
25. 2025-06-26
    price $179,000
26. 2025-06-26
    price $179,000
27. 2025-06-06
    listed $189,000 Active
28. 2025-06-06
    listed $189,000 Active
29. 2024-04-30
    price $199,000
30. 2024-03-21
    price $219,000
31. 2023-09-30
    listed $229,000 Active
32. 2022-05-02
    listed $210,000
33. 2008-05-20
    soldstatus $140,000
34. 2007-10-02
    soldstatus $110,287
35. 2005-05-18
    soldstatus $73,500
36. 1989-11-14
    soldstatus $63,000
37. 1989-11-14
    soldstatus $63,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,689 · $141/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,542
• − Property taxes: −$1,689
• − Insurance: −$762
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$971
• − Management: −$971
• − Depreciation: −$4,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,201/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alta Sierra, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,415

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Russian/Polish/Slavic 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 264.1726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+142.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $152,500 SSMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $155,000 GEMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $155,000 GEMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $165,000 GEMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $179,000 GEMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $189,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $189,000 GEMLS
• 2024-04-30 Price Changed $199,000 SSMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $219,000 SSMLS
• 2023-09-30 Listed $229,000 SSMLS
• 2022-05-02 Listed $210,000 SSMLS
• 2008-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,287 Public Records
• 2005-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 1989-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,689 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.