4199 Silver Gln · Valdosta, GA 31632

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,553 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2014 3,920 sqft lot Est $256k · 6% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A Rare Find on this one owner home in Highly Desirable Nelson Hill! Welcome to this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath corner lot home offering over 1,500 square feet of comfortable living space in one of North Lowndes County's most sought-after communities. Conveniently located just minutes from Moody Air Force Base, Valdosta State University, South Georgia Medical Center, shopping, dining, and I-75, this location truly checks every box. From the moment you walk through the front door, you will appreciate the custom details and spacious feel throughout the home. The inviting great room features stunning double trey ceilings and an open, airy layout perfect for entertaining or relaxing

Key facts

• Double trey ceilings
• Custom details
• Split floor plan

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• CUSTOM DETAILS
• GREAT ROOM
• DOUBLE TREY CEILINGS
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: P-D
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $145 (about $12.08/month); Subdivision: NELSON HILL

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Laundry room
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Carpet flooring; Hardwood flooring; Tile flooring
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($27/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,158 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,245
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4192 Bright Crk	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-1%)	4mo	$255,900	$166	92
4167 Silver Gln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-1%)	4mo	$245,000	$159	92
4115 Cider Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-1%)	2mo	$265,000	$172	89
4152 Willow Round Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-4%)	3mo	$265,500	$177	86
4089 Silver Gln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-1%)	1mo	$249,900	$163	85
4154 Shadow Garden Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+1%)	3mo	$264,500	$168	84
4097 Nelson Hill Pl	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-1%)	2mo	$254,000	$165	84
4122 Nelson Hill Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-1%)	5mo	$252,000	$163	82
4176 Cider Trl	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-8%)	4mo	$227,605	$159	82
3988 Nelson Hill Pl	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,630 (+5%)	3mo	$260,000	$160	71
4058 Cottage Hts	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-10%)	1mo	$230,000	$165	71
3946 Bettys Pl	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,779 (+15%)	1mo	$300,000	$169	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $130,772
• Equity at exit: $216,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $384,933
• Equity at exit: $466,073

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,982 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,318/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,979

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $138	-5% $70	+0% $2	+5% $-66	+10% $-134
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-76	+0% $2	+5% $81	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $63	base $2	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-123

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4194 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,795	$1.09	22d	1	0.05mi
4171 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,650	$1.07	22d	1	0.09mi
4112 Silver Gln Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,750	$1.14	45d	1	0.23mi
4162 Nelson Hill Pl Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1561	$1,900	$1.22	22d	1	0.32mi
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	22d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $239,900 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-07
   listed $239,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,318
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,104
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$985
• After-tax cash flow: $1,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-67.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $239,900 SGMLS
• 2013-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $730,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+31.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,318 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.