509 S Collington Ave S · Baltimore, MD 21231

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,451 sqft · Townhouse public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1880 Est $334k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming three-story brick city home perfectly situated in the vibrant heart of Baltimore. Just minutes from the Fells Point and Canton neighborhoods, as well as the Patterson Park and the Inner Harbor, this home offers the ideal blend of urban excitement and comfort. The property features three spacious bedrooms and two full bathrooms, making it perfect for individuals seeking ample living space. Convenient laundry area is in the bathroom on 2nd level. Recently painted interior and newer carpeting create a fresh, inviting atmosphere, ready for you to move right in without any immediate work. A standout feature is the home's attractive price point, which presents an excellen

Key facts

• Rooftop deck
• Built 1880
• Listed 58 days

Tags

• THREE STORY BRICK CITY HOME
• LAUNDRY AREA IN BATHROOM
• ROOFTOP DECK
• PANORAMIC VIEWS OF WATER
• CONSTRUCTED WITH BRICK
• PRIME LOCATION IN THE CITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hampstead Hill Academy (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #201 of 860 statewide, top 25%, 861 students, 39% FRL, charter); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 79% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+42 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $250k implies a 92% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $333,730
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 S Washington St	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,434 (-1%)	0mo	$350,000	$244	85
18 S Washington St	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,410 (-3%)	0mo	$318,000	$226	71
14 N Wolfe St N	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-2%)	1mo	$292,000	$205	66
918 S Ellwood Ave	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,420 (-2%)	0mo	$392,500	$276	60
1330 Lancaster St Unit C402	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-2%)	0mo	$775,000	$542	59
616 S Belnord Ave	0.41mi	3/3.0	1,608 (+11%)	1mo	$370,000	$230	58
2515 Boston St #706	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,308 (-10%)	1mo	$439,000	$336	57
145 N Milton Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-7%)	1mo	$260,000	$192	54
220 N Luzerne Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,372 (-5%)	1mo	$120,000	$87	53
1330 Lancaster St Unit C603	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (+7%)	0mo	$985,000	$635	50
280 S Robinson St	0.74mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,282 (-12%)	1mo	$294,000	$229	37
410 N Chester St	0.74mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (-13%)	1mo	$180,000	$143	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-33,985
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-26,035
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21231

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$477 /mo · $5,719/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $200	+0% $130	+5% $59	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-72	-5% $29	+0% $130	+5% $231	+10% $332
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $193	base $130	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 S Chester St Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.5	1534	$3,000	$1.96	19d	1	0.06mi
513 S Madeira St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1132	$2,000	$1.77	6d	1	0.07mi
2217 Fleet St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1598	$2,700	$1.69	12d	1	0.07mi
2210 Cambridge St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1450	$2,725	$1.88	45d	1	0.08mi
2018 Fountain St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	19d	1	0.11mi
411 S Madeira St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1312	$2,150	$1.64	45d	1	0.12mi
2013 Fleet St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1565	$2,800	$1.79	0d	1	0.13mi
328 S Collington Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	45d	1	0.16mi
1911 Eastern Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	4.0	1520	$2,600	$1.71	25d	1	0.20mi
1927 Bank St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1106	$2,250	$2.03	0d	1	0.20mi
1904 Bank St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1792	$3,250	$1.81	45d	1	0.25mi
227 S Madeira St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,200	$2.00	45d	1	0.26mi
825 S Port St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1316	$2,800	$2.13	45d	1	0.29mi
1742 Fleet St Unit 204 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	916	$2,100	$2.29	45d	1	0.31mi
251 S Durham St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1120	$2,300	$2.05	25d	1	0.34mi
1816 Gough St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1248	$3,500	$2.80	25d	1	0.34mi
1802 Gough St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1368	$2,595	$1.90	45d	1	0.35mi
1000 Fell St #603 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1224	$2,200	$1.80	46d	1	0.40mi
1818 E Pratt St Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,500	$1.44	19d	1	0.41mi
622 S Broadway Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,998	$3.14	0d	12	0.42mi
516 S Bethel St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1307	$2,500	$1.91	25d	1	0.46mi
706 S Bethel St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,300	$2.20	45d	1	0.47mi
16 S Wolfe St Unit B Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1014	$1,800	$1.78	19d	1	0.47mi
18 N Patterson Park Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1300	$2,100	$1.62	0d	1	0.51mi
430 S Bond St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1842	$2,875	$1.56	19d	1	0.51mi
16 N Bradford St Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.5	930	$2,400	$2.58	6d	1	0.53mi
2115 E Fairmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,795	$1.61	25d	1	0.54mi
2015 E Fairmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1402	$2,500	$1.78	45d	1	0.55mi
2242 E Fairmount Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,850	$2.12	45d	1	0.57mi
108 N Madeira St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,900	$1.73	45d	1	0.58mi
520 S Caroline St Unit 405 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	890	$2,300	$2.58	25d	1	0.59mi
107 N Chester St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1750	$2,750	$1.57	45d	1	0.59mi
9 N Luzerne Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,450	$1.78	6d	1	0.61mi
143 N Patterson Park Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1650	$3,700	$2.24	25d	1	0.63mi
104 N Rose St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	936	$2,500	$2.67	45d	1	0.64mi
2317 E Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1315	$2,000	$1.52	14d	1	0.64mi
210 S Caroline St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	808	$1,965	$2.43	45d	23	0.66mi
2209 Mullikin St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1512	$1,900	$1.26	5d	1	0.67mi
1402 Point St Baltimore, MD	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1470	$5,730	$3.90	4d	3	0.67mi
2410 E Fayette St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	45d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-04-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical
3. 2026-03-02
   status Active
4. 2026-02-03
   historical
5. 2026-01-28
   listed $249,900 Active
6. 2026-01-14
   historical
7. 2025-12-22
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-12-11
   status Active
9. 2025-12-10
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2025-11-20
    price $249,000
11. 2025-11-20
    status Active
12. 2025-09-26
    status Pending
13. 2025-09-26
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2025-09-03
    price $264,990
15. 2025-08-25
    price $265,000
16. 2025-08-19
    price $269,990
17. 2025-08-12
    price $275,000
18. 2025-07-28
    listed $285,000 Active
19. 2010-05-03
    historical Withdrawn
20. 2010-05-03
    historical
21. 2009-11-09
    price
22. 2009-09-25
    price
23. 2009-08-04
    price
24. 2009-06-30
    listed
25. 2009-06-30
    listed $229,000
26. 2006-12-17
    historical
27. 2005-09-26
    listed
28. 2005-09-15
    historical
29. 2005-06-14
    listed
30. 2000-11-09
    soldstatus $130,000
31. 2000-08-08
    soldstatus $130,000
32. 2000-06-20
    historical
33. 2000-05-13
    listed $139,000
34. 1994-09-08
    historical
35. 1992-05-13
    listed
36. 1985-06-03
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,719 · $477/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,719 · $477/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$5,719
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,456
• − Management: −$2,456
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,451
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$588
• After-tax cash flow: $2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 14,969
• Household income: $85,254
• Rent vs Own: 65.8% rent · 34.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -545.26%
• Current HPI: 351.3778
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1149.5% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $249,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-22 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-11 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $264,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $265,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $269,990 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-28 Listed $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-03 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-05-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-11-09 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-09-25 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-08-04 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2009-06-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-06-30 Listed $229,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-26 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-09-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-06-14 Listed — MRIS
• 2000-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2000-08-08 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MRIS
• 2000-06-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-05-13 Listed $139,000 MRIS
• 1994-09-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 1992-05-13 Listed — MRIS
• 1985-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,719 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.