9573 State Line Rd · Conneaut, OH 16401

$119,900

1 bd · None ba · 2,788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1999 4.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A beautiful setting for this 2788 sq. ft. 6 bedroom house with multiple outbuildings including a new 30' X 48' Pole Barn. Located on 4.581 acres with a wooded area and a fenced in area for horses. Includes 6 horse stalls, a chicken coup, and wonderful gardens. This home is ready for your heating, plumbing, and wiring additions. Priced to sell quickly.

Key facts

• Chicken coup
• Fenced in
• 4.581 acres

Tags

• 30 X 48 POLE BARN
• 6 HORSE STALLS
• CHICKEN COUP
• 2 SHEDS
• 4.581 ACRES
• FENCED IN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 10 parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Porch; Screened porch; Outbuilding

Interior

• Flooring: Other
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Partial basement; 8 total rooms; Other flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-604/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (7.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.3% in Conneaut — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#808 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Northwestern SD (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #333 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $94,641 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.80%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $62,092
• Equity at exit: $108,015

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.52×
• Total profit: $185,361
• Equity at exit: $232,939

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16401

• Home prices YoY: 18.6%
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,431/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,010

Max offer price $111,012

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-16	+0% $-50	+5% $-84	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-125	-5% $-88	+0% $-50	+5% $-13	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-20	base $-50	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-07
   status Active
4. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-29
   listed $119,900 Active
6. 2019-02-04
   soldstatus $107,000
7. 2019-01-31
   soldstatus $107,000 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   A beautiful setting for this 2788 sq. ft. 6 bedroom house with multiple outbuildings including a new 30' X 48' Pole Barn. Located on 4.581 acres with a wooded area and a fenced in area for horses. Includes 6 horse stalls, a chicken coup, and wonderful gardens. This home is ready for your heating, plumbing, and wiring additions. Priced to sell quickly.

8. 2018-06-05
   listed $109,900 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   A beautiful setting for this 2788 sq. ft. 6 bedroom house with multiple outbuildings including a new 30' X 48' Pole Barn. Located on 4.581 acres with a wooded area and a fenced in area for horses. Includes 6 horse stalls, a chicken coup, and wonderful gardens. This home is ready for your heating, plumbing, and wiring additions. Priced to sell quickly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,431 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,651 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,431
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$2,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$647
• After-tax cash flow: $43/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwestern SD
• NCES district ID: 4217880
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $48,180
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4912
• State rank: #333 of 539 in PA

Livability — Conneaut

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #14907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• City population: 16,317
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,842
• Household income: $67,976
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.3

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 36.45%
• Current HPI: 232.9468
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — GEBOR
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — GEBOR
• 2026-02-17 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-01-29 Listed $119,900 GEBOR
• 2019-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $107,000 GEBOR
• 2018-06-05 Listed $109,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,431 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.