511 Turner Ave · Ashland, MO 65010

$244,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1985 $193/sqft · at area comps Est $256k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

Key facts

• New doors
• Fresh paint
• New siding

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW DOORS
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW SIDING
• NEW RAILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($190/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#155 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Southern Boone County R-I (rural): math 42% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #66 of 324 in MO (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Southern Boone Primary (493 students, 14% FRL); Southern Boone Middle (math 38% / reading 44%, grade F, #172 of 391 statewide, top 46%, 629 students, 16% FRL); Southern Boone High (math 52% / reading 52%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 540 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $193,985 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,710
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -4.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 Turner Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,285 (+1%)	10mo	$235,000	$183	90
601 Turner Ave	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-6%)	3mo	$249,900	$210	84
508 Turner Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	10mo	$281,000	$208	77
400 Misty Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+15%)	4mo	$272,900	$187	59
510 Summertime Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,462 (+15%)	4mo	$300,000	$205	58
406 Ash St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-10%)	19mo	$170,000	$149	57
109 Church St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+10%)	6mo	$250,000	$178	50
304 Ash St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-12%)	18mo	$150,000	$134	48
301 Redwood Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+6%)	14mo	$278,000	$206	47
911 Stacy Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+11%)	15mo	$299,000	$212	45
301 Amanda Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+13%)	7mo	$299,900	$209	38
102 E Liberty Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+9%)	15mo	$285,500	$205	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,757
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,773
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65010

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,564/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $85	+0% $16	+5% $-54	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-61	+0% $16	+5% $92	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $78	base $16	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-112

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
511 Turner Ave Ashland, MO	3.0	1.5	1285	$1,900	$1.48	15d	1	0.00mi
4680 Treaty Dr Ashland, MO	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	15d	1	1.06mi
15245 Regiment Dr Ashland, MO	3.0	2.0	1503	$2,200	$1.46	15d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $244,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $244,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $244,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $244,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-05-17
   price $249,900 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

6. 2026-05-09
   price $255,900 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

7. 2026-05-04
   price $262,900 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

8. 2026-04-22
   price $267,900 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

9. 2026-03-31
   price $272,900 254-char remark

   Show marketing remark (254 chars)

   Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

10. 2026-03-23
    listed $282,900 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Beautifully remodeled home in the heart of Ashland! Come see for yourself this 3 bed 1.5 bath home, with new light fixtures, new doors, fresh paint throughout, new siding, new railings, granite counters in kitchen with gorgeous tile backsplash and more.

11. 2025-08-25
    soldstatus Closed 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Come see this adorable family home, in a hard-to-find neighborhood nestled on a cul-de-sac in SoBoCo Schools, walking distance to the park, pool, & school! This home is offered as-is with a 3,000 Buyer credit. Schedule your showing today!

12. 2025-07-29
    historical 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Come see this adorable family home, in a hard-to-find neighborhood nestled on a cul-de-sac in SoBoCo Schools, walking distance to the park, pool, & school! This home is offered as-is with a 3,000 Buyer credit. Schedule your showing today!

13. 2025-07-19
    price $235,000 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Come see this adorable family home, in a hard-to-find neighborhood nestled on a cul-de-sac in SoBoCo Schools, walking distance to the park, pool, & school! This home is offered as-is with a 3,000 Buyer credit. Schedule your showing today!

14. 2025-07-15
    listed $250,000 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Come see this adorable family home, in a hard-to-find neighborhood nestled on a cul-de-sac in SoBoCo Schools, walking distance to the park, pool, & school! This home is offered as-is with a 3,000 Buyer credit. Schedule your showing today!

15. 2015-03-27
    soldstatus
16. 2015-03-27
    soldstatus
17. 2015-02-05
    listed $114,900
18. 2009-03-26
    soldstatus
19. 2006-02-20
    listed $99,000
20. 2006-02-20
    listed $109,900
21. 2004-06-16
    soldstatus
22. 2004-05-12
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,564 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,376 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$811/yr (+$68/mo · 51.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$1,564
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$4,078
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$979
• After-tax cash flow: $1,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Boone County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2928560
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,240
• Composite: 39.98/100
• National rank: #3833
• State rank: #66 of 324 in MO

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #8688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, MO
• City population: 7,105
• Population (ZIP): 7,105

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.49%
• Current HPI: 227.6769
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+150.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $249,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $255,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $262,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $267,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $272,900 CBORMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $282,900 CBORMLS
• 2025-08-25 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2025-07-29 Delisted — CBORMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $235,000 CBORMLS
• 2025-07-15 Listed $250,000 CBORMLS
• 2015-03-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-27 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2015-02-05 Listed $114,900 CBORMLS
• 2009-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-02-20 Listed $109,900 CBORMLS
• 2006-02-20 Listed $99,000 CBORMLS
• 2004-06-16 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2004-05-12 Listed $99,900 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,564 · +14.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.