29794 Liars Loop Unit Cabin 10 - Lot 4 · Bent Tree Harbor, MO 65355

$92,250

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 275 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 7,840 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cabin 10 is a single room with full kitchen, range with oven and refrigerator. Just down the road from Truman State Park Marina giving you quick and easy access to Truman Lake, while also being close to Drake Harbor where you can access the Lake of the Ozarks. This cabin has been a successful rental and has a long client list. Could be utilized as an Airbnb or long-term rental on the side.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Airbnb potential
• 7,840 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• QUICK ACCESS TO TRUMAN LAKE
• CLOSE TO DRAKE HARBOR
• AIRBNB POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $92k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($492/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($954 rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Bent Tree Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warsaw R-IX (rural): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #222 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($638 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $81,180 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $26,323
• Equity at exit: $54,819

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $76,394
• Equity at exit: $96,781

Cash invested: $25,830 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65355

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$484
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $92,250

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,062
• Closing costs: $2,768
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,250 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,250 Active 274 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,250 Active 273 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,250 Active 272 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,250 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,250 Active 269 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,250 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,250 Active 265 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $92,250 Active 264 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,250 Active 263 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $92,250 Active 260 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,250 Active 259 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,250 Active 258 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,250 Active 257 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,250 Active 256 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $92,250 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Cabin 10 is a single room with full kitchen, range with oven and refrigerator. Just down the road from Truman State Park Marina giving you quick and easy access to Truman Lake, while also being close to Drake Harbor where you can access the Lake of the Ozarks. This cabin has been a successful rental and has a long client list. Could be utilized as an Airbnb or long-term rental on the side.

17. 2025-09-16
    listed $92,250 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Cabin 10 is a single room with full kitchen, range with oven and refrigerator. Just down the road from Truman State Park Marina giving you quick and easy access to Truman Lake, while also being close to Drake Harbor where you can access the Lake of the Ozarks. This cabin has been a successful rental and has a long client list. Could be utilized as an Airbnb or long-term rental on the side.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,446
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,167
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$461
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$2,684
• Taxable loss: −$982
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$236
• After-tax cash flow: $727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family cabin is in fair condition with some cosmetic repairs and maintenance needed. It has a good roof and stable foundation, but the interior and exterior show signs of wear. Upgrades to the interior, exterior, and landscaping can significantly increase its value for resale or rental.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Slight wear on cabinet doors.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Some wear on sink and toilet.
• Minor Exterior siding — Slight wear on siding panels.
• Minor Flooring — Worn appearance in living areas.
• Minor Interior walls — Some wear and tear visible.
• Minor Windows — May need cleaning and sealing.
• Minor HVAC system — Basic system may need cleaning and maintenance.
• Minor Landscaping — Basic landscaping with picnic tables and grills visible.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property.
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the living space and increase the property's value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the property's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Slight wear on cabinet doors.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Some wear on sink and toilet.	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Slight wear on siding panels.	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Worn appearance in living areas.	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · Some wear and tear visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · May need cleaning and sealing.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC system · Basic system may need cleaning and maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Basic landscaping with picnic tables and grills visible.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$4,000–24,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value of the property. ↑
• Both Replace worn flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the living space and increase the property's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the property's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2931070
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $33,160
• Composite: 29.53/100
• National rank: #6495
• State rank: #222 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bent Tree Harbor

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,029

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,355 people
• By 2030: 16,513 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 14,898 · -14.2%
• By 2050: 13,662 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 11,308 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 8,755 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+59.1) · D 20.1% · R 79.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -22.3pp · 2024: -59.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+59.1 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+54.1 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Current HPI: 232.6924
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $92,250 LOBR
• 2025-09-16 Listed $92,250 WCAR