1206 Piedmont Creek Trl · Houston, TX 77073

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 2007 5,096 sqft lot $117/sqft · 7% below area Est $222k · 7% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1206 Piedmont Creek Trl is a home in a quiet community just minutes from I-45, Beltway 8, and Hardy Toll Road! This spacious residence features an open-concept layout with a bright living area, modern kitchen with broad counters, full appliances, and plenty of storage. The large primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with walk-in closet and spa-style bath. Enjoy outdoor living in the private backyard. Conveniently located near Deerbrook Mall, The Woodlands, and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, with nearby dining, shopping, and parks. A perfect blend of comfort, style, and location — ready for you to call home!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Modern kitchen
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Carolee Booker Elementary (math 24% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 765 students, 91% FRL); Rickey C Bailey Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,065 students, 85% FRL); Spring H S (math 12% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,497 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 2,760 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 162 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,091 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.89%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,614
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -7.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15834 Colonial Bridge Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-8%)	0mo	$199,900	$124	73
631 Gateship Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,822 (+4%)	5mo	$199,900	$110	70
907 Garden Land Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,926 (+10%)	3mo	$245,900	$128	65
1126 Wabash Elm St	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,870 (+7%)	8mo	$220,000	$118	64
1010 Willow West Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+0%)	2mo	$240,000	$136	63
16031 Imperial Forest Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-13%)	1mo	$240,000	$157	62
15926 Colonial Bridge Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	5mo	$199,000	$130	62
747 Oak West	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+1%)	2mo	$259,999	$147	61
15938 Wisteria Hill St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-13%)	8mo	$210,000	$137	60
915 N Oak Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,730 (-1%)	5mo	$249,500	$144	54
1403 Heath Cote Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-15%)	8mo	$210,000	$140	51
20919 New Leaf Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,515 (-14%)	4mo	$235,000	$155	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-28,313
• Equity at exit: $52,671

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-35,777
• Equity at exit: $58,072

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,207/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,071

Max offer price $172,091

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-128	+0% $-186	+5% $-244	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-331	-5% $-259	+0% $-186	+5% $-114	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-134	base $-186	+0.5pp $-239	+1.0pp $-293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1430 Great Easton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,825	$1.16	0d	1	0.53mi
920 Century Plaza Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1350	$1,199	$0.89	1d	1	1.12mi
1514 Glasholm Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	23d	1	1.43mi
19959 Oland Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$1,800	$0.90	26d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $205,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    price $210,000 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    1206 Piedmont Creek Trl is a home in a quiet community just minutes from I-45, Beltway 8, and Hardy Toll Road! This spacious residence features an open-concept layout with a bright living area, modern kitchen with broad counters, full appliances, and plenty of storage. The large primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with walk-in closet and spa-style bath. Enjoy outdoor living in the private backyard. Conveniently located near Deerbrook Mall, The Woodlands, and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, with nearby dining, shopping, and parks. A perfect blend of comfort, style, and location — ready for you to call home!

18. 2026-02-25
    listed $220,000 Active 629-char remark

    Show marketing remark (629 chars)

    1206 Piedmont Creek Trl is a home in a quiet community just minutes from I-45, Beltway 8, and Hardy Toll Road! This spacious residence features an open-concept layout with a bright living area, modern kitchen with broad counters, full appliances, and plenty of storage. The large primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with walk-in closet and spa-style bath. Enjoy outdoor living in the private backyard. Conveniently located near Deerbrook Mall, The Woodlands, and George Bush Intercontinental Airport, with nearby dining, shopping, and parks. A perfect blend of comfort, style, and location — ready for you to call home!

19. 2026-01-20
    historical
20. 2025-11-10
    price $225,000
21. 2025-11-10
    listed $22,500 Active
22. 2023-02-24
    historical
23. 2023-02-14
    price $224,900
24. 2023-01-09
    price $229,900
25. 2022-12-14
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,207 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,207 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,027
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$5,207
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,762
• − Management: −$1,762
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$5,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $-872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $22,500 HARMLS
• 2023-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-14 Price Changed $224,900 HARMLS
• 2023-01-09 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-14 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,207 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.