10 Sulky Cir · East Hampton North, NY 11937

$2,495,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 338 Days on market

Built 2001 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Built 2001
• Listed 338 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.33M (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.20M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,013 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John M Marshall Elementary School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 548 students, 51% FRL); East Hampton Middle School (math 39% / reading 60%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 265 students, 42% FRL); East Hampton High School (math 94% / reading 98%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,015 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 26% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,271/mo this rent would consume 215% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $17k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $75k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $699k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.20M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,195,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-80,915
• Equity at exit: $372,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $744,861
• Equity at exit: $215,722

Cash invested: $698,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,084
• Tax from tax record: −$1,100 /mo · $13,200/yr
• Insurance: −$1,040
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,887
• Net cashflow: $3,160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $19,270

Max offer price $2,495,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,573	-5% $3,867	+0% $3,160	+5% $2,454	+10% $1,748
Rent	-10% $1,322	-5% $2,241	+0% $3,160	+5% $4,080	+10% $4,999
Rate	-1.0pp $4,417	-0.5pp $3,795	base $3,160	+0.5pp $2,514	+1.0pp $1,856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $623,750
• Closing costs: $74,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
46 Ancient Hwy East Hampton, NY	5.0	5.5	5000	$20,000	$4.00	45d	1	1.25mi
11 Marina Ln East Hampton, NY	5.0	3.0	2500	$55,000	$22.00	45d	1	1.41mi
48 Whooping Hollow Rd East Hampton, NY	5.0	4.5	3500	$90,000	$25.71	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2024-09-17
   soldstatus $2,415,000
2. 2024-03-05
   status Pending
3. 2023-12-19
   soldstatus $1,600,000
4. 2023-09-28
   status Active
5. 2023-09-26
   historical
6. 2023-03-31
   listed $2,495,000 Active
7. 2000-12-29
   soldstatus $958,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,200 · $1,100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $27,683 · $2,307/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,483/yr (+$1,207/mo · 109.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $279,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$139,759
• − Property taxes: −$13,200
• − Insurance: −$12,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,340
• − Management: −$22,340
• − Depreciation: −$72,582
• Taxable loss: −$3,444
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$827
• After-tax cash flow: $38,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Hampton North

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #19706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D- Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Hampton North, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+152.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $2,415,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,600,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-31 Listed $2,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $958,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,200 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.