205 Lavender Ln · Elgin, TX 78621

$291,670

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · Land · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 5,052 sqft lot $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 205 Lavender Lane in Elgin’s premier community, Harvest Ridge! This two-story new build home is alive with natural light throughout, including an open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room with wood-look vinyl flooring. You can find the heart of the home in the kitchen which features 42-inch upper cabinets, durable 3cm granite countertops, a large center island, sleek black appliances with a gas range, and nickel hardware throughout. Relax in the primary suite with a walk-in closet, dual vanity, semi-private water closet and a linen closet. Enjoy other amazing features such as a utility room conveniently located upstairs, coordinating bright white cabinets throughout, an

Key facts

• Large center island
• Upstairs loft
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• UTILITY ROOM UPSTAIRS
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• SPORTS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with The Neighborhood Company; Monthly association fee of $70; Association covers common area maintenance and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, playground, park, sport courts, trails/paths, fishing, game room, kitchen facilities, planned social activities, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Garage faces front; Single garage door; Driveway; Two covered parking spaces (2 total)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Public water (Municipal Utility District); Sewer via Municipal Utility District; Phone available
• Home design: Two-story home; New construction by Brohn Homes; Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank siding; Blown-in and spray foam insulation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered patio; Patio; Back yard with wood fencing; Front yard; Automatic sprinklers (front, rear, side); Level lot; Small trees; Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Interior steps; Recessed lighting; Kitchen island; Pantry; Stone counters; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer hookup; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-200 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (30.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,997 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.94%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $146,277
• Equity at exit: $262,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $441,084
• Equity at exit: $566,651

Cash invested: $81,668 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,530
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,084/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,293

Max offer price $256,372

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,918
• Closing costs: $8,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
242 Barley Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,150	$1.21	2d	1	0.02mi
116 Honeybee Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1782	$2,000	$1.12	4d	1	0.06mi
234 Heritage Mill Trl Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,850	$1.21	2d	1	0.27mi
14521 Gurneys Eagle Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,895	$1.01	2d	1	0.29mi
107 Tillage Rd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,775	$1.15	19d	1	0.36mi
14421 Prairie Sod Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,650	$1.08	2d	1	0.44mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	44d	1	0.58mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	0.59mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	0.60mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	2d	1	0.65mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	0.65mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	44d	1	0.72mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	44d	1	0.72mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	0.72mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	44d	1	0.73mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	0.73mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	18d	1	0.73mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	0.75mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	44d	1	0.76mi
18200 Papuan Cv Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.77mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	0.78mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	0.78mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	18d	1	1.03mi
419 Gettysburg Loop Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,850	$1.18	12d	1	1.09mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	44d	1	1.11mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	15d	1	1.14mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	44d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $291,670 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,084 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,338 · $445/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,254/yr (+$354/mo · 392.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,338
• − Property taxes: −$1,084
• − Insurance: −$1,458
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$8,485
• Taxable loss: −$7,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,834
• After-tax cash flow: $-564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $291,670 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+23.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,084 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.