455 County Road 065 · Sam Rayburn, TX 75951

$129,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1970 2.00 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dreaming of the perfect historic farmhouse project to make your own? This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home on 2+/- acres was custom-built using reclaimed lumber from the historic St. Mary's in Port Arthur and is waiting for your restorative vision. Brand-new aerobic septic system was just installed in October 2025. Featuring high ceilings, an original porcelain farmhouse sink, and a spacious layout with massive rooms that include two primary bedroom suites. You'll love the outdoor living space with huge front and back porches perfect for relaxing, all situated in an unbeatable location within walking distance to the river, and just minutes to the lake and National Forrest. Don't miss the chance to complete this incredible project and create the sprawling farmhouse you've always wanted. Call today for a tour!

Key facts

• Reclaimed lumber
• Outdoor living space
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• HISTORIC FARMHOUSE PROJECT
• RECLAIMED LUMBER
• AEROBIC SEPTIC SYSTEM
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• WALKING DISTANCE TO THE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 1.5% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,299 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.84%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,847
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $31,206
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,140/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,157

Max offer price $129,999

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $433	-5% $396	+0% $359	+5% $322	+10% $286
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $296	+0% $359	+5% $423	+10% $487
Rate	-1.0pp $425	-0.5pp $392	base $359	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $291

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,999 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,999 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,999 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,999 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,999 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,999 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,999 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,999 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,999 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,999 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,999 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,999 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,999 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,999 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,999 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-03
    price $129,999 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Dreaming of the perfect historic farmhouse project to make your own? This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home on 2+/- acres was custom-built using reclaimed lumber from the historic St. Mary's in Port Arthur and is waiting for your restorative vision. Brand-new aerobic septic system was just installed in October 2025. Featuring high ceilings, an original porcelain farmhouse sink, and a spacious layout with massive rooms that include two primary bedroom suites. You'll love the outdoor living space with huge front and back porches perfect for relaxing, all situated in an unbeatable location within walking distance to the river, and just minutes to the lake and National Forrest. Don't miss the chance to complete this incredible project and create the sprawling farmhouse you've always wanted. Call today for a tour!

18. 2026-03-10
    listed $149,999 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    Dreaming of the perfect historic farmhouse project to make your own? This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home on 2+/- acres was custom-built using reclaimed lumber from the historic St. Mary's in Port Arthur and is waiting for your restorative vision. Brand-new aerobic septic system was just installed in October 2025. Featuring high ceilings, an original porcelain farmhouse sink, and a spacious layout with massive rooms that include two primary bedroom suites. You'll love the outdoor living space with huge front and back porches perfect for relaxing, all situated in an unbeatable location within walking distance to the river, and just minutes to the lake and National Forrest. Don't miss the chance to complete this incredible project and create the sprawling farmhouse you've always wanted. Call today for a tour!

19. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,140 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 11.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,140
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$575
• After-tax cash flow: $3,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $129,999 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $149,999 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,140 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.