909 E Minnesota Rd · San Juan, TX 78589

$199,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1984 0.44 ac lot $94/sqft · 33% below area Est $296k · 33% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Alamo! Situated on a spacious . 44-acre lot along Minnesota Road, this property offers plenty of potential for buyers looking to renovate, invest or create their ideal home. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and over 2,100 living square feet, the layout provides generous space for everyday living and entertaining. This is a great handyman special to be turned around and made into whatever you visualize! The potential is endless with so much potential! The home includes a large main living area, mature shade trees, a roomy backyard, and a side-entry 2-car garage. Its prime location places you just minutes from schools, restaurants, shopping centers, and quick expressw

Key facts

• 0.44 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1984

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 0.44 acres (approx. 19,166 sq ft)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces side); 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Manual gate
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Not new construction
• Construction: Brick construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building area approximately 2,116
• Exterior features: Covered patio and patio slab; Manual gate; Mature trees; Chain link fencing; Allows horses; Storage structure on property; Paved road access; Curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Painted or stained floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Painted or stained flooring; Double-pane (energy efficient) windows; Drapes and mini blinds; Attic fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer/dryer connections; Electric water heater located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($661/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Augusto Guerra El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 675 students, 96% FRL); Audie Murphy Middle (math 13% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 787 students, 95% FRL); Psja Memorial Early College H S (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,246 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 1,860 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 72% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,015 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.46%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,521
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -32.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3900 Wolverine Rd	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,112 (-0%)	17mo	$350,000	$166	62
4503 Jenica Cir W	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,207 (+4%)	2mo	$249,000	$113	59
1112 Brenda Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,365 (+12%)	14mo	$315,000	$133	58
5002 Sebastian Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	1,886 (-11%)	13mo	$298,000	$158	53
3501 Grandora St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,897 (-10%)	1mo	$229,900	$121	52
3802 San Gabriel St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,931 (-9%)	14mo	$300,000	$155	47
5305 Oleander Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,909 (-10%)	16mo	$220,000	$115	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,543
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,551
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,295/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,071

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $111	+0% $55	+5% $-1	+10% $-58
Rent	-10% $-114	-5% $-29	+0% $55	+5% $140	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $106	base $55	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2716 E Conroe Rd Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$2,300	$1.42	15d	1	1.40mi
1126 Grandeur Dr Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	15d	1	1.46mi
2700 E Comal RD Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$2,300	$1.52	15d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $199,900
17. 2026-05-08
    price $200,000
18. 2026-05-04
    listed $239,900 Active
19. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus
20. 1994-10-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,295 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,295 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AH · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,295
• − Insurance: −$2,820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,467
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $199,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-24 Listed $190,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $199,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $200,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $239,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,295 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.