Gates Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$179,449

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 166 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS OUTDOOR SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $179,449 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $208,887.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,915 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.05%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,887
• List price: $179,449
• Delta: -14.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Mccloud Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,192 (0%)	2mo	$164,999	$138	98
518 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,192 (0%)	4mo	$169,999	$143	96
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	6mo	$188,990	$156	83
519 Mccloud Ct	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,033 (-13%)	4mo	$168,999	$164	74
121 Texas Angel Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	6mo	$198,999	$147	72
514 Jones Beach Cv	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	2mo	$195,999	$145	71
309 Kings Row Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	2mo	$205,499	$152	70
512 Texas Angel Way	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,276 (+7%)	4mo	$195,000	$153	68
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	5mo	$220,990	$163	66
261 Kings Row Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	6mo	$200,990	$148	65
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	5mo	$217,990	$161	62
219 Louisa Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$204,749	$151	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-45,176
• Equity at exit: $31,146

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-66,697
• Equity at exit: $18,061

Cash invested: $58,488 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $198,949 ($141/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,095
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$261 /mo · $3,133/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $194,418

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-28	+0% $-100	+5% $-172	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-234	-5% $-167	+0% $-100	+5% $-33	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-47	base $-100	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,222
• Closing costs: $6,267
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,745	$1.18	108d	1	0.03mi
124 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	87d	1	0.07mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	164d	1	0.07mi
101 Hellcats Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,450	$1.02	69d	1	0.08mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	161d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	184d	1	0.08mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	145d	1	0.08mi
136 Jack Browning Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,499	$1.25	69d	1	0.13mi
505 Sergeant Murphy Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	87d	1	0.19mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	184d	1	0.20mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	36d	1	0.21mi
449 Jones Beach Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	10d	1	0.21mi
125 Cattle Queen Rd Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,600	$1.14	1d	1	0.23mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	155d	1	0.23mi
256 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,545	$1.07	69d	1	0.25mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	184d	1	0.27mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	143d	1	0.27mi
408 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,600	$1.16	69d	1	0.32mi
128 Burt Rainey Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1213	$1,750	$1.44	125d	1	0.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $179,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Gates)Address: Jarrell, TX
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1192 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Gates (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $179,449 Active 166 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $179,449 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $179,449 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $179,449 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $179,449 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $179,249 Active 160 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $178,999 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $178,999 Active 159 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $178,999 Active 158 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $178,999 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $178,999 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $178,999 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $178,999 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $178,999 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    pricedays on market $178,999 Active 152 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $180,999 Active 151 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $180,999 Active 150 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $180,999 Active 149 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $180,999 Active 148 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $180,999 Active 147 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $180,999 Active 146 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $180,999 Active 145 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $180,999 Active 144 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $180,999 Active 143 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $180,999 Active 142 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $180,999 Active 141 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $180,999 Active 140 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $180,999 Active 139 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $180,999 Active 138 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $180,999 Active 137 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $180,999 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $180,999 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $180,999 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $180,999 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $180,999 Active 132 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $180,999 Active 131 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $180,999 Active 130 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $180,999 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $180,999 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $180,999 Active 127 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $180,999 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $180,999 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $180,999 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $180,999 Active 122 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $180,999 Active 121 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $180,999 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $180,999 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $180,999 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $180,999 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $180,999 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,409
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,701
• − Property taxes: −$3,133
• − Insurance: −$1,044
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$6,077
• Taxable loss: −$4,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $-45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,960–$17,880 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $179,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Gates)Address: Jarrell, TX
• Construction: New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1192 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Gates (new construction)