2004 Meadowlands Ct · Toms River, NJ 08755

$294,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Condo public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1988 $243/sqft · 9% below area Est $325k · 9% under $390/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A well maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse in desirable Saratoga, North Dover! Freshly painted and move-in ready, this clean and inviting home features a dramatic two-story foyer, spacious bedrooms, and a primary bedroom with a generous walk-in closet. Furnace and central AC are approx. 5 years old. Enjoy a peaceful wooded view and a prime location within the community, just a short walk to the pool and clubhouse. Saratoga is a well-manicured, cared-for community with a residential feel, conveniently close to the Garden State Parkway, shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's beautiful beaches.

Key facts

• Short walk to pool
• Walk in closet
• Prime location

Tags

• TWO STORY FOYER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• WOODED VIEW
• PRIME LOCATION
• SHORT WALK TO POOL
• SHORT WALK TO CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $390; HOA covers management, pools, snow removal, trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, common grounds, tennis courts, basketball courts

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot; Other parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas hot water; Electric cooling
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Wood; Ceramic tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central A/C; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dining area; Attic; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Sliding glass door
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $295k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,476 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,981
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -9.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-37,043
• Equity at exit: $43,971

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-17,732
• Equity at exit: $25,498

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$305 /mo · $3,664/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$390
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,993

Max offer price $294,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $248	+0% $165	+5% $81	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $38	+0% $165	+5% $291	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $313	-0.5pp $240	base $165	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1642	$2,968	$1.81	0d	23	1.11mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	14d	1	1.12mi
2556 Woodland Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1409	$3,500	$2.48	0d	1	1.12mi
2144 Lakewood Rd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	750	$2,150	$2.87	8d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $390 · $4,680/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $294,900 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $294,900 Active 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   A well maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse in desirable Saratoga, North Dover! Freshly painted and move-in ready, this clean and inviting home features a dramatic two-story foyer, spacious bedrooms, and a primary bedroom with a generous walk-in closet. Furnace and central AC are approx. 5 years old. Enjoy a peaceful wooded view and a prime location within the community, just a short walk to the pool and clubhouse. Saratoga is a well-manicured, cared-for community with a residential feel, conveniently close to the Garden State Parkway, shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's beautiful beaches.

3. 2026-04-30
   listed $294,900 Active 605-char remark

   Show marketing remark (605 chars)

   A well maintained 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse in desirable Saratoga, North Dover! Freshly painted and move-in ready, this clean and inviting home features a dramatic two-story foyer, spacious bedrooms, and a primary bedroom with a generous walk-in closet. Furnace and central AC are approx. 5 years old. Enjoy a peaceful wooded view and a prime location within the community, just a short walk to the pool and clubhouse. Saratoga is a well-manicured, cared-for community with a residential feel, conveniently close to the Garden State Parkway, shopping, dining, and the Jersey Shore's beautiful beaches.

4. 2006-12-19
   soldstatus $215,000
5. 2005-12-19
   soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,664 · $305/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,503 · $459/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,840/yr (+$153/mo · 50.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$3,664
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,074
• − Management: −$3,074
• − HOA: −$4,680
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$2,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$634
• After-tax cash flow: $2,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+47.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $294,900 MOMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $294,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,664 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.